The latest macro-survey by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) ahead of the November 29 elections places the PSOE as the leading force, with an estimated vote share of 33.3% and a projection of between 134 and 143 seats, while the combined total of PP and Vox would fall far short of reaching an absolute majority in Congress.
According to the poll, the PP would obtain 25.5% of the votes, about eight points less than in 2023, which would translate into a range of between 98 and 106 deputies. Vox, for its part, would rise to 18.4% of the votes, with an estimated result of between 57 and 65 seats. Even in the most favorable scenario, the combined total of the two parties would not reach the 176 seats needed for an absolute majority.
The study is based on 45,074 interviews conducted in 4,190 municipalities spread across all of Spain. The fieldwork was carried out between October 7 and October 30, a period of time in which citizens’ impressions were also collected after the Urda rail accident.