The poll reflects a scenario of political continuity in the region, but with signs of wear in the conservative bloc and, above all, with a left unable to capitalize on it.
Ayuso retains power, but loses strength compared to 2023
The Partido Popular remains as the first force with 46.7% of the votes, a sufficient figure to sustain the absolute majority, but lower than that recorded in previous polls, where it was close to 50%.
The loss of some tenths and seats is mainly due to the growth of Vox, which erodes part of the PP's electoral space. Even so, the loyalty of the popular vote remains very high -close to 87%-, which allows Ayuso to retain control of the Madrid Parliament.
Vox grows, but falls short of its national momentum
Vox improves its results compared to 2023 and could reach up to 14 seats with 9.5% of the votes. However, its progress is much more moderate than in other recent territories such as Extremadura, Aragón or Castilla y León.
The party consolidates its position as the third force, but without real capacity to influence the regional Government. Part of its growth comes from PP voters, although it also maintains a solid core of support.
The PSOE recovers second place, but without changing the scenario
The Socialist Party would achieve 20.2% of the votes and around 29 seats, regaining second place in the Assembly. However, this advance does not alter the underlying political balance. The socialist growth is explained in part by the transfer of votes from other left-wing forces, especially from Podemos and a weakened Más Madrid, rather than by significant mobilization of its own.
Más Madrid wears down and evidences the crisis of the progressive bloc
Más Madrid loses strength in the poll and cedes space within the left-wing bloc. Internal tensions and the dispute for leadership directly impact its electoral expectation, generating doubts even among its own voters.
The result is a fragmented progressive bloc, where the sum barely varies compared to 2023 and remains far from competing with the PP majority.
An absolute majority on the wire, but with no real alternative
The photograph left by the poll is clear: Ayuso maintains control of Madrid, albeit with less room to spare, Vox grows without breaking the board and the left continues without articulating a solid alternative.
On May 2nd, the Community of Madrid remains installed in a conservative stability scenario, where the main risk for the PP is not the opposition, but the loss of its own margin.
Source: Sigma Dos for El Mundo, published on 05/02/2026
| PARTY | SEATS | PERCENTAGE |
| PP | 68-69 | 46.7% |
| PSOE | 29 | 20.2% |
| MÁS MADRID | 24-25 | 16.9% |
| VOX | 13-14 | 9.5% |