The poll reflects a pattern that has been repeated in recent weeks: the PP not only maintains its base, but also absorbs part of the electorate of the hardest right. Specifically, more than one in five Vox voters in 2022 would now lean towards Moreno, a move that explains why an absolute majority ceases to be a hypothesis and becomes the central scenario.
The transfer from Vox boosts the PP
The most determining data of the poll is not the final number of seats, but the vote flow. Vox loses more than two points in the last month and remains in a range of 17-18 deputies, far from the growth expectation it had weeks ago.
That setback is not neutral: it directly feeds the PP. Vox's voting loyalty falls to unusual levels in its electorate, while Moreno manages to consolidate a dominant position by absorbing that space.
The PSOE slightly improves, but the scenario does not change
On the left block, María Jesús Montero barely makes progress. She gains a few tenths, but remains clearly below the 2022 result and moves between 26 and 28 seats.
The problem is not only the distance from the PP - more than 20 points - but the lack of capacity to mobilize new votes. The margin for growth is limited to the undecided, with no signs of structural change.
The alternative left reassembles, but remains fragmented
Por Andalucía improves after integrating Podemos and is positioned around 5-6 seats, while Adelante Andalucía moves between 3 and 4. There is some growth in that space, but insufficient to alter the general balance.
Fragmentation remains the main obstacle: although they add up to more, they do so divided and without the capacity to dispute power.
An increasingly defined scenario
Three weeks before the elections, the map is simplifying: the PP's absolute majority no longer depends as much on its growth as on Vox's weakness and the PSOE's stagnation. Moreno's message - avoid depending on Vox - is resonating especially among right-wing voters, who are choosing to concentrate their vote. This dynamic, if it continues, makes an absolute majority the most likely outcome on May 17.
Target Point for El Debate, published on 04/27/2026
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 55-56 | 42,8 |
| PSOE | 26-28 | 21,6 |
| VOX | 17-18 | 15,5 |
| Por Andalucía | 5-6 | 7,6 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 3-4 | 6,5 |