According to this first estimate, the Popular Party would be around 31% of the vote, ahead of the PSOE, which would reach 28%, while Vox would consolidate at 17%. From there, the left-wing space is fragmented between Sumar (close to 8%) and Podemos (around 3%), with regional parties maintaining a relevant weight.
The PP leads with an advantage, but without breaking the board
The key data from the model is not just that the PP wins, but how it does so: with a clear advantage but without overwhelming the PSOE. The estimated range places the popular vote between 28.6% and 33.6%, indicating that the first position is consolidated, but not guaranteed.
It is a stable leadership, more of resistance than of explosive growth, very much in line with the average of recent polls.
The PSOE holds on and maintains the electoral pulse
The PSOE appears as the second force with an estimated 28% and a range that can bring it closer or further from the PP depending on how the campaign evolves. The key here is the base: it maintains more than 75% vote fidelity, which allows it to remain competitive despite wear and tear.
However, the model detects a critical point: indecision. Part of its electorate is not moving to other parties, but rather to doubt or abstention.
Vox consolidates itself as the third structural force
Despite the rest of the latest polls, here Vox confirms its central role in the right-wing bloc with an estimated 17%. It is not a one-off peak, but a structural position within the system.
Furthermore, it presents one of the highest loyalty levels in the political landscape, above 85%, which reinforces its electoral stability. Even so, the model detects leaks towards the PP, which limits its growth.
The left fragments: Sumar and Podemos compete for space
In the progressive bloc, the main problem is not so much the fall as the division. Sumar is around 7-8%, but with low vote retention (around 50%), while Podemos is around 3% trying to rebuild its space.
The result is an electorally less efficient bloc, where the sum does not always translate into real strength against the right.
A country of blocs: 50% of the vote is already defined
The model introduces a key conclusion: the right-wing bloc (PP, Vox and SALF) reaches 50% of the vote, reflecting a very consolidated polarization scenario.
But it also leaves another important piece of data: electoral movements are mainly internal within each bloc, not between left and right. That is, the vote is redistributed rather than changing sides.
The undecided, the hidden key to the upcoming elections
The analysis points out that indecision is concentrated in the ideological center. It is not at the extremes, but among more moderate voters who are not clear about their vote. This group can be decisive: not because it changes the balance of blocs, but because it can tip the scales within each one.
Source: More in Common, published on 04/30/2026.
| PARTY | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 31.1 |
| PSOE | 28 |
| Vox | 17.1 |
| Sumar | 7.7 |