Marine Le Pen well ahead, Jean-Luc Mélenchon in second position, and the center looking for how to avoid being left out. That is the breakdown offered by one of the scenarios of the barómetro of Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL on the 2027 French presidential elections.
Édouard Philippe represents the center alone, without Gabriel Attal as a competitor. Even under that condition, his 14% remains five points below Mélenchon’s 19%. Le Pen is at 36%.
The difference matters because these are presidential elections, not a seat distribution among parties. The leadership of Agrupación Nacional and the dispute among its adversaries must be read separately: heading the first round does not mean having won the Presidency.
Le Pen opens a distance that changes the reading of the campaign
In the scenario reproduced, Le Pen leads Mélenchon by 17 points and Philippe by 22. Her estimate even exceeds the arithmetic sum of both, which reaches 33%.
This sum does not represent a possible candidacy nor does it allow anticipating vote transfers. It does, however, help describe the gap between first place and two of her main pursuers within this hypothesis.
The political consequence is that Le Pen’s rivals face two different problems. First they need to get ahead of the other contenders; then they would have to build a different majority to challenge her for the Presidency. Resolving the first does not guarantee resolving the second.
Mélenchon appears second without monopolizing the left-wing vote
The 19% places Mélenchon ahead of Raphaël Glucksmann, who gets 12%. The distance between the two is seven points, while Fabien Roussel and Marine Tondelier are at 2% each.
The scenario allows a specific interpretation: Mélenchon tops that electoral space, but he keeps competition beside him. Glucksmann does not appear as a token candidacy, and the support of the other options also cannot be transferred automatically to the leader of La Francia Insumisa.
Adding their percentages to announce what a united left would get would be building a poll that Harris has not conducted in this configuration. A common candidacy could modify turnout, attract some voters, and move others away.
Philippe has a problem even without Attal
The most relevant data for the center is not only Philippe’s third place. It is that he obtains it in a hypothesis that eliminates Attal’s direct competition within that space.
That also does not prove that a campaign cannot alter the balance of forces. It describes the starting point of a candidacy under certain conditions, not the result that would necessarily result from negotiations between parties.
What exactly the polls show
The polls also already incorporate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and Nathalie Arthaud, with 2% and 1%, respectively. This completes the 100% of voting intention captured in that hypothesis.
| Candidate | Reference formation | Voting intention |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | National Rally | 36% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | Unsubmissive France | 19% |
| Édouard Philippe | Horizons | 14% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | Place publique | 12% |
| Bruno Retailleau | The Republicans | 8% |
| Éric Zemmour | Reconquest | 4% |
| Fabien Roussel | French Communist Party | 2% |
| Marine Tondelier | The Ecologists | 2% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | Debout la France | 2% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | Workers’ Struggle | 1% |
Source: Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, ninth wave.
The comparison with 2021 needs two corrections
The fixed photo confronts this estimate with another photo from November 2021. The visual effect is clear-cut, but it does not compare election results: it contrasts two earlier polling moments before a presidential election.
The clearest example is the center. Comparing the 24% attributed to Macron in that chart with Philippe’s 14% mixes two candidates and two electoral offers. It can illustrate a difference between scenarios, but it does not demonstrate a transfer of ten points to another force.
What happened in 2022 forces us to distinguish poll and result
The actual result of the first round of 2022 was different from the November 2021 snapshot: Macron obtained 27.85%, Le Pen 23.15%, and Mélenchon 21.95%, according to official data.
Mélenchon finished that first round 1.20 points behind Le Pen. In the current capture scenario, the two are separated by 17 points. It is a difference between an election result and a subsequent estimate, not an evolution calculated between two equivalent polls.
That precedent also prevents describing the current 19% as Mélenchon’s electoral maximum: his effective 2022 percentage was higher. The novelty of this hypothesis is his relative position compared with the other aspirants, especially Philippe.
What to look at in the next polls
To check a trend, you will have to compare scenarios with the same candidates and review the dates of the fieldwork. If one study includes Attal, Lisnard, or Villepin and another excludes them, the differences may partly be explained by that change in the offer.
Small changes must also be separated from a sustained modification. A single point of rise or fall is not enough on its own to announce a turnaround, especially when it falls within the study’s margins of uncertainty.
The Harris poll was conducted online between November 3 and 5, with 2.101 people registered on the electoral rolls, from a sample of 2.436 adults. The original document is dated November 9 and expressly reminds that voting intentions do not predict the result at the ballot box. 9 novembre 2026