The vote of immigrants with Spanish nationality leans mostly towards the PSOE, according to an analysis of CIS surveys published by El Debate. However, electoral behavior is far from homogeneous and varies clearly depending on the origin of the voters.
The study is based on microdata from barometers conducted between January 2025 and March 2026, with a sample of more than 3,700 people born outside of Spain and already naturalized.
Clear differences according to the country of origin
One of the most relevant aspects is the strong divergence between groups.
Immigrants of Moroccan origin show a clear preference for the PSOE, with 38% support, well above other political options.
Instead, among Venezuelans the pattern is different: close to half lean towards right-wing options, with votes split between PP and Vox.
The Latin American vote, divided between blocs
Other groups present a more fragmented behavior:
- Mexicans show greater closeness to the PP
- Chileans lean overwhelmingly towards the PSOE
- Brazilians divide their support among various forces
- Among Cubans, Vox appears as a second option
These data reflect that immigrant voting does not respond to a single ideological bloc, but to very different political trajectories and contexts of origin.
High level of indecision and abstention
Beyond specific preferences, the study points to a key element: a significant percentage of respondents declare themselves undecided or intending to abstain.
This factor introduces a high uncertainty about the real behavior of this electorate in general elections.
The context: regularization and political debate
The analysis comes at a time of political debate about the regularization of immigrants promoted by the Government. Although these new residents will not be able to vote in general elections in the short term - as they do not yet have nationality - there is a discussion about their future impact on the electoral roll.
In the case of local elections, foreign votes are possible under reciprocity agreements with certain countries, as already happened in the municipal elections of 2023.
The vote of naturalized immigrants in Spain confirms a favorable trend towards the PSOE, but with important nuances depending on the origin. A diverse electorate, with a high level of indecision, which adds complexity to the political map.