The PSOE improves its expectations, but the recovery does not change the parliamentary majority projected by SocioMétrica. According to the advance published by El Español this Sunday, the socialists gain four deputies compared to the reference used by the media, while PP, Vox, and UPN would sum 200 seats: 24 more than the 176 needed for an absolute majority.
The advance precedes the publication of the complete distribution and does not yet specify how many deputies would individually correspond to PP, PSOE, Vox, and Frente Amplio. It does allow for the identification of a movement: the socialist improvement coincides with a weakening of the candidacies situated to its left.
The right goes from 206 to 200 seats compared to October 11
The verifiable comparison is the parliamentary sum. The SocioMétrica of October 11 attributed 141 deputies to PP, 64 to Vox, and one to UPN. Together they reached 206.
The new advance places that same grouping at 200: six less. The setback would reduce their margin over the absolute majority, but would not eliminate it.
PP would also retain a lead of more than five points over PSOE, according to El Español. El advance does not provide the exact percentages of either, so it cannot yet be specified how much that distance changes compared to the 6.4 points from October 11.
PSOE improves, but its final figure is yet to be known
The media announces a socialist increase of four seats "in a week." The documented reference from October 11 placed PSOE at 104 deputies, but two weeks have passed between that publication and the current one.
Therefore, the advance does not yet allow for establishing that PSOE reaches 108 representatives, but it is a strong increase considering how close it is to the previous poll from El Español.
Podemos loses its own representation, but alliances must be considered
According to the advance, Podemos would not achieve representation in Madrid, where it runs alone. The joint candidacy Unidad del Pueblo Canario would also not obtain seats.
This does not allow for stating that any member of Podemos can reach Congress. The text itself includes their agreement to incorporate representatives into the lists of ERC in Catalonia. The eventual election of those candidates would depend on the territorial distribution and their positions on the lists.
El Español also points out that the sum of ERC and Podemos would fall below the previous survey from October 11. Then they had eight and two deputies, respectively: ten in total.
SALF rises to 2.4%, but would remain outside Congress
Se Acabó la Fiesta would reach 2.4% of the vote, compared to the 2.1% that SocioMétrica attributed to it on October 11. The improvement of three tenths would not provide representation, according to the advance.
A national percentage of that size does not guarantee a deputy. Its parliamentary translation depends on the territorial concentration of the vote and the competition in each constituency.
What remains to be known from the complete survey
The advance attributes to the study a 99% probability of an absolute majority for the right. That figure should be understood as a result of the SocioMétrica model, conditioned by its assumptions.
Until the publication of the survey, the conclusion is limited but relevant: the PSOE improves, while the grouping of PP, Vox and UPN maintains an absolute majority of 200 deputies, lower than the 206 published on October 11.
Check the average of Demócrata surveys and the tools of the electoral special.