The daily tracking of 40dB. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER reduces the PP’s lead over the PSOE to 1.3 points in the general elections of November 29. The second installment of the tracking, published this Saturday, November 14, shows a socialist advance and a setback for the Conservatives after the first day of the campaign.
General elections 29N · Tracking 40dB. · 14 November 2026
The PSOE cuts eight tenths from the PP
Evolution between the deliveries of 13 and 14 November. The PP advantage goes from 2.1 to 1.3 points.
PP: 31.1% (−0.4 points). PSOE: 29.8% (+0.4). Vox: 18.5% (−0.3). PP and Vox go from 190 to 189 seats.
Seats from 14 November (change from 13): PP, 126 (=) · PSOE, 119 (+1) · Vox, 63 (−1) · Broad Front, 5 (=) · Other left coalitions, 5 (=) · Podemos, 1 (=) · Others, 31 (=).
The categories from the first chart are maintained. “Others” groups SALF and the rest of the candidacies and blank vote: on the 14th it totals 1.7% + 12.5% = 14.2%. Broad Front, other territorial left coalitions and Podemos appear separately.
Source: 40dB. for EL PAÍS and the Cadena SER. Comparison with the first delivery published by Demócrata and the report for the 14th (pages 6 and 8).
Percentages over valid vote. Variations in percentage points. Election estimates, not voting results.
The difference narrows by eight tenths compared to the first measurement, which placed the PP at 31.5% and the PSOE at 29.4%, separated by 2.1 points. Those percentages correspond to the 13 November delivery; the new data places the gap between the two at 1.3 points.
The approach changes the fight for first place, but hardly alters the balance between blocs. According to the information published by EL PAÍS, PP and Vox remain around the 190 seats, above the 176 needed to reach the absolute majority.
The PSOE cuts eight tenths from the PP in the 40dB tracking.
The movements of the conservatives and socialists extend the trends that the consultancy has been observing since the beginning of November. The PP keeps the first spot, although with a smaller advantage, while the PSOE improves its position in the race to be the most-voted party.
DEMOCRAT · GENERAL ELECTIONS 29N
40dB.: vote and seats estimate
Evolution from 13 to 14 November 2026 · EL PAÍS and Cadena SER
Swipe the table to view all columns.
| Party or group | Estimated vote | Central seats | Range 14 Nov. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. | 14 Nov. | Δ points | 13 Nov. | 14 Nov. | Δ seats | ||
| PP | 31.5% | 31.1% | −0.4 | 126 | 126 | 0 | 121–132 |
| PSOE | 29.4% | 29.8% | +0.4 | 118 | 119 | +1 | 116–123 |
| Vox | 18.8% | 18.5% | −0.3 | 64 | 63 | −1 | 61–67 |
| Open Front | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4–6 |
| Other left-wing coalitions | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3–5 |
| Podemos | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Others | 13.9% | 14.2% | +0.3 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 30–33 |
| PP + Vox | 50.3% | 49.6% | −0.7 | 190 | 189 | −1 | — |
According to EL PAÍS, during the barometers of this legislature there was only one smaller distance between the two: in October 2025, when the conservatives were ahead of the socialists by 1.1 points. The new difference of 1.3 points is close to that record.
PP and Vox drop below 50% of the vote and keep the advantage in seats
The combined total of PP and Vox falls slightly below 50% of the votes, a threshold that, according to the poll information, had not been lost since May. This drop does not shift the right-wing bloc from the vicinity of the 190 deputies.
The left, without including the progressive sovereignist parties, barely exceeds 36%. The study points to an advance by those sovereignist forces, while Podemos maintains one MP in the first two installments of the daily tracking.
The result outlines two different contests: the fight between PP and PSOE to lead the count, and the sum of parliamentary support needed to form a Government. The socialist rapprochement in the first case does not, for now, translate into a substantial change in the second.
Colau regains ground among those who voted for Sumar
The presidential preference shows how leaders compete within their respective spaces. Among those who voted for Sumar in the 2023 general elections, Ada Colau receives the backing of 30%, compared with the 27% who choose Pedro Sánchez.
In this way, the candidate of the Frente Amplio is once again positioned ahead of the president among that electorate. Her support doubles that of Irene Montero, according to data collected by EL PAÍS.
On the right, 20% of 2023 PP voters now prefer Santiago Abascal as president. In the opposite direction, Alberto Núñez Feijóo is chosen by 7% of former Vox voters. These figures express preferences for candidates, not percentages of vote transfer between parties.
69.5% say they will go to vote on 29N
Mobilization is another indicator that changes with the start of the campaign. 69.5% of those surveyed say they will go to the polls, 3.5 points more than the previous week.
The figure describes a declared intention and does not amount to a closed forecast of participation. The survey information reminds us that some voters who ultimately abstain avoid acknowledging it when they answer a survey.
In the 2023 general elections, turnout, excluding external voting, was 66.59%. The comparison makes it possible to place the declared mobilization in this campaign, although it faces a survey response with an electoral result already recorded.
Consult the daily evolution and previous reports in the tracking monitoring of 40dB. for the elections of 29N.