The German GDP advances by 0.3% in the second quarter and improves the initial estimate.

Germany's GDP rises by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2026, improving the first estimate and consolidating the recovery despite the risks from the drought.

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The gross domestic product (GDP) of Germany recorded a growth of 0.3% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous three months, one-tenth above the expansion rate initially calculated by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

Thus, despite the impact of the conflict in the Middle East during the period, the advance of the largest economy on the continent between April and June was only one-tenth lower than the 0.4% recorded in the first quarter, maintaining the momentum of the recovery that began at the end of the previous fiscal year.

"The German economy maintains the growth dynamism observed at the beginning of the year," noted Ruth Brand, president of Destatis, emphasizing that, "as in the first quarter, the growth was mainly due to the positive evolution of exports."

With this, the performance of the German economy in the second quarter of 2026 was slightly below the eurozone average, whose GDP advanced by 0.4%, and the whole of the European Union, which recorded an increase of 0.5%.

Among the major economies of the Twenty-Seven, Spain led the growth between April and June with a GDP increase of 0.7%, while France and Italy recorded an expansion of 0.2% in both cases. In the United States, GDP increased by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2026.

Despite this better-than-expected performance in the second quarter, the Bundesbank has warned that the reduction of flow in the main German rivers due to the drought affecting Europe could "temporarily slow down" the recovery of the largest economy on the Old Continent.

In this way, although the institution appreciates that the German economy enters the second half of 2026 with a "fairly solid" underlying cyclical trend, there are persistent sources of tension, warning that "the marked drought period adds additional temporary restrictions."

In this context, the lower availability of river transport routes and the sharp increase in logistics costs could "significantly hinder" industrial production and the increase in exports.

"The low water levels are also exerting marked pressure on overall economic activity in the third quarter," indicates the Bundesbank in its August bulletin, where it adds that the consequences of the lower water flow in the main rivers of the country "could temporarily slow down the recovery of the German economy."

GROWTH OF EXPORTS

As already happened in the first three months of the year, German foreign trade was again one of the engines between April and June. Exports of goods and services rose by 2% compared to the first quarter of 2026, supported mainly by the increase in goods sales abroad (+2.6%), while service exports remained stable compared to the previous quarter.

In parallel, imports of goods recorded a notable increase of 2.1%, in contrast to the more moderate advance of 0.3% in service imports. Overall, purchases from abroad increased by 1.5% compared to the first quarter of 2026.

On the other hand, gross fixed capital formation decreased by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026, while final consumption expenditure barely grew by 0.1%, with a slight increase of 0.1% in both household consumption and government consumption.

On the other hand, Destatis has indicated that around 45.7 million people were employed in Germany in the second quarter of 2026, which represents 212,000 fewer workers (-0.5%) compared to the same period in 2025.

In the services sector, employment decreased for the first time since the Covid-19 crisis and, as in previous quarters, the number of employed in manufacturing and construction continued to decrease appreciably.