The Ibex 35 has started the week with a drop of 0.23%, down to 19,974 points, and is again positioned below the barrier of 20,000 units. The military escalation between the United States and Iran has once again raised geopolitical risk and pushed oil above 90 dollars.
The Spanish index has performed better than some of the main stock exchanges on the continent, but it has not been able to maintain the 20,000 points. Repsol has stood out as the most bullish stock of the day, while the largest declines have been concentrated in Solaria, IAG, and Indra.
Repsol leads the Ibex with Brent above 90 dollars
Repsol has advanced by 2.44%, the largest increase of the entire index, coinciding with a new rise in crude prices.
The barrel of Brent, the benchmark in Europe, rose 2.5%, up to 90.35 dollars, at the close of European stock exchanges. The West Texas Intermediate in the United States advanced by 2.18%, up to 85.25 dollars.
The movement comes after new clashes between Washington and Tehran over the weekend. The United States has reported an operation against two rocket launchers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard located on Larek Island that, according to the U.S. version, were being prepared to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. Central Command later confirmed a "limited and precise action" against Iranian units that, it claims, posed a threat to navigation.
Iran responded with attacks against the Rey Huseín and Al Azraq air bases in Jordan, where it claims to have hit positions related to U.S. fighter jets.
For the small shareholder of Repsol, more expensive oil can improve the prospects of certain businesses linked to hydrocarbon production. The risk arises if the increase in energy prices persists for months and ends up fueling inflation and interest rates again.
Telefónica and Cellnex resist the declines
Alongside Repsol, Cellnex has risen by 0.91%, Enagás by 0.78%, Telefónica by 0.72%, and Logista by 0.61%.
Telefónica thus manages to advance in a negative session for the overall market. For its shareholders, the references with greater potential remain in cash generation, debt, and the evolution of shareholder remuneration, especially in a scenario of high yields in the bond market.
The behavior of Enagás coincides, moreover, with a day in which energy again occupies the center of attention of investors due to the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East.
Solaria, IAG, and Indra lead the declines
On the opposite side, Solaria has been the worst stock of the Ibex, with a drop of 2.53%, followed by IAG (-2.11%), Indra (-2.08%), Sacyr (-1.4%), and ACS (-1.26%).
The decline of IAG occurs precisely on a day of strong oil price increase. Fuel represents one of the relevant costs for airlines, so a sustained rise in crude oil is a particularly sensitive reference for the sector.
Indra also corrects after the significant revaluations accumulated during the year. The market continues to follow the company's ability to execute its large order book and translate it into revenues and profits.
Jackson Hole reinforces doubts about rates
The other major reference for investors remains U.S. monetary policy after the intervention of the Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, in Jackson Hole.
His speech has reinforced the possibility that the Fed may have to raise rates again if inflation does not continue to approach the 2% target.
The scenario is particularly relevant after the new increase in oil prices. If the energy spike is again passed on to prices, the Federal Reserve could have less room to relax financial conditions.
For the stock market, higher rates for a longer time imply higher financing costs for companies and families and increase the relative attractiveness of fixed income compared to equities.
The Euribor approaches 3% again
In Spain, the twelve-month Euribor closed August at 2.952%, according to preliminary data, pending official confirmation from the Bank of Spain.
This is its highest level since August 2024, when it stood at 3.169%.
The evolution of this indicator directly affects households with variable mortgages when it comes time to review their payments, but it also provides a signal about the general financing conditions in the eurozone.
The United States strengthens its oil bet in Venezuela
During the weekend, an agreement from the United States to obtain majority control of one-fifth of Venezuela's oil reserves has also been made known.
The strategy aims to increase the available reserves for the United States and contribute to reducing the cost of fuels, although the recovery of Venezuelan production requires significant investments in facilities and new infrastructures.
The analyst from XTB, Javier Cabrera, has warned that this process needs time, precisely when Donald Trump faces the midterm elections in November.
Europe mostly closes in red
The drop of the Ibex has been lower than that recorded by some of the main European markets.
The German DAX has lost 1.17% and the French CAC 40 has lost 0.79%, while Milan has given up 0.01%. London has been the exception, with an increase of 0.29%.
In fixed income, the yield of the Spanish ten-year bond has advanced to 3.776%, placing the risk premium against the German bond at 44.93 basis points.
The euro has appreciated by 0.3% against the dollar, up to 1.162 dollars per euro.
Gold remained practically flat around 4,450 dollars per ounce, while bitcoin retreated to the area of 78,500 dollars.