This Sunday, the regional elections in Andalusia put an end to the electoral cycle that began with Extremadura and continued in Aragon and Castilla y León. The current president of the Junta, Juanma Moreno Bonilla (Partido Popular), arrives as the clear favorite, but the unknown looms as to whether he will manage to regain an absolute majority or depend on Vox to govern, as is the case in the aforementioned regions.
All the polls published during the election campaign agree that the Partido Popular will win clearly, but the balance will tip by a couple of seats. According to the average compiled by Demócrata, Moreno Bonilla could obtain 55 seats, exactly the magic number that grants an absolute majority - and three less than those won in 2022.
The former first vice-president and former Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero (PSOE), in second place, will explore the socialist floor in Andalusia. Projections are for 28 seats, two less than those obtained in 2022.
For their part, the candidate for Vox, Manuel Gavira, could go from 14 to 16; while Antonio Maíllo (Por Andalucía) and José Ignacio García (Adelante Andalucía) are around five.
Everything in a nutshell
With this scenario, the campaign reached its final stretch, with Moreno Bonilla flirting with an absolute majority. However, there have been changes, so other scenarios are not out of the question. The PP opted for a campaign very personalized to the current president of the Junta, selling the management carried out and continuity, while the PSOE tried to turn public healthcare and the wear and tear of public services into a mobilization axis.
At times, Montero succeeded, as the controversy over breast cancer screenings and criticism of the healthcare situation threatened the comfortable popular majority during the pre-campaign. Some polls not only did not give Moreno Bonilla an absolute majority, but they detected some wear and tear and cast doubt on Vox's growth.
All in all, Moreno Bonilla managed to hold on and take advantage of the controversy sparked by the socialist candidate's statements about the death of two civil guards (which she described as a work accident and had to rectify).
Montero is playing for it: managing expectations
These elections also have an evident national dimension. For Pedro Sánchez, Andalusia was one of the great territorial bets of the political cycle. The decision to place María Jesús Montero as a candidate responded precisely to that logic: to send one of the most powerful leaders in the Government to try to rebuild the Andalusian PSOE.
The operation entails enormous risks. Montero is risking her political authority within socialism and her future as one of the key figures of sanchismo. A broad defeat would leave Moncloa's territorial strategy very weakened and reinforce the feeling that the PSOE continues to struggle to find a competitive project in Andalusia.
The problem for the socialists is not solely electoral. There is an emotional and territorial component that worries Ferraz: part of the progressive electorate seems to connect more with Sánchez in general elections than with the Andalusian PSOE in regional elections.
The key is managing expectations. Andalusian socialism takes for granted that it is heading towards its electoral floor, which they placed at 30 seats, but it will be deeper. They are considering 28 representatives in the Parliament of Andalusia, even 27. Less would be a real failure. The last straw Montero would cling to depends on her direct rival, Moreno Bonilla.
Both will lose representatives. If Moreno Bonilla gets 55, he would lose three; while if Montero obtains 28, she would lose two along the way. Therein lies the last straw on which to build an argument.
The PSOE predicts another electoral defeat to close the cycle of regional elections this year, and much has been speculated about whether Sánchez, in this case, might press the red button, consider the legislature concluded, and call early general elections. However, Moncloa dismisses this and already anticipates that they do not believe the result is extrapolable to the national level.