The data is politically decisive. Moreno would not repeat with the ease of 2022, when he achieved 58 deputies, but he would retain parliamentary self-sufficiency. This would leave Vox without real capacity to condition the formation of the next Andalusian Government.
This is the Democratic average: absolute for Moreno by the minimum
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 55 | 42.8 |
| PSOE | 28 | 22.5 |
| VOX | 16 | 14.3 |
| Por Andalucía | 5 | 7.8 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 5 | 7.0 |
The PP wins clearly, but the absolute majority is decided by leftovers
The average places the PP at around 42.8% of the votes and 55 seats. It is a broad victory, with more than 20 points advantage over the PSOE, but also a narrower majority than four years ago.
The background reading is clear: Moreno maintains enormous electoral strength, but the absolute majority depends on the last provincial seats. Almería, Granada, Huelva, Sevilla, Málaga or Córdoba appear in several polls as territories where the last deputy can alter the final result.
Montero's PSOE falls below 2022
The PSOE would remain around 22.5% of the votes and 28 seats. The average confirms that María Jesús Montero does not manage to reach Juan Espadas' mark in 2022, when the socialists ended up with 30 deputies.
The data is especially harsh because Andalusia was for decades the great territorial bastion of the PSOE. Now, even in the most favorable polls, the socialists are very far from disputing the Government and are moving in a range of minimums.
The fall is not explained solely by the PP's advance. There are also leaks towards abstention and towards the two formations to the left of the PSOE.
Vox grows, but does not get the key
Vox would remain the third force with approximately 14.3% of the votes and 16 seats. An improvement compared to the 14 deputies in 2022, but it does not reach the leap it expected after the results achieved in other communities.
The average shows a paradox: Vox grows, but cools down in the final stretch. Some polls place it at 17-20 seats, but others leave it between 13 and 16. The final average points to a moderate advance, insufficient to influence the government if Moreno reaches an absolute majority.
Its role will depend on a single seat: if the PP falls to 54, Vox returns to the center of the board; if the PP reaches 55, it is left out of the power equation.
For Andalusia and Adelante Andalucía tie on the alternative left
The average leaves one of the most interesting battles of the election night in the space to the left of the PSOE.
For Andalucía would be around 7.8% of the vote and 5 seats, while Adelante Andalucía would be close to 7.0% and would also obtain 5 deputies.
For Andalucía resists, but Adelante Andalucía is on the rise. José Ignacio García has managed to turn Adelante into a competitive option against the coalition of Antonio Maíllo, IU, Sumar, and Podemos.
The right maintains a structural advantage
The sum of PP and Vox would reach 71 seats, compared to 38 for the bloc formed by PSOE, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía.
The imbalance is enormous. Even if the PP did not achieve an absolute majority, the right-wing bloc would have a very wide parliamentary advantage.
The keys to the poll average
- The first nuance is that Moreno arrives strong, but not bulletproof. The absolute majority appears as the central scenario, but by a single seat.
- The second is that the PSOE has not managed to activate the "Montero effect". The candidate has national notoriety, but that does not translate into an electoral comeback.
- The third is that Vox does not collapse, but it also does not break the board. It grows compared to 2022, although it falls short of its own expectations.
- The fourth is that Adelante Andalucía appears as one of the surprises of the campaign. It can tie in seats with Por Andalucía and change the internal balance of the alternative left.
- And the fifth is that SALF appears in several polls with percentages close to 2-3%, but without representation. It can erode Vox, but it does not enter Parliament.
This average collects the latest 12 polls published in the final stretch of the campaign and which can be consulted here.