The Andalusian elections of March 17th will not be decided solely by who wins in votes. The real election night may lie in the provincial remainders, those last seats awarded by the D’Hondt method and which, in a community divided into eight constituencies, can change by a few thousand ballots.
The absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament is set at 55 seats. And therein lies the political key to the night: if Juanma Moreno manages to retain a sufficient majority, he will be able to govern alone; if he falls short, he will need support or abstentions to be invested. That is why, beyond the overall result, parties will scrutinize the last deputy from each province.
Today, on reflection day, no new polls can be published. But the electoral mechanics that will make some territories decisive can be explained. The Andalusian Parliament has 109 deputies and is distributed by provinces: Seville elects 18, Málaga 17, Cádiz 15, Granada 13, Almería and Córdoba 12 each, and Huelva and Jaén 11 each.
What are the remainders and why they can decide the absolute majority
In Andalusia, seats are not distributed based on a single regional result, but province by province. Each candidacy competes in each constituency, and deputies are assigned using the D’Hondt method among lists that exceed 3% of the votes in that province.
The system works by dividing each party's votes by 1, 2, 3, 4, and so on. Seats are awarded to the highest quotients until all deputies for the province are allocated. The last quotient that enters is what determines the last seat.
And there appears the famous "remainder" or, as they say in Andalusia, "restillo": the last deputy is not always won by the one with the most overall votes, but by the one who holds up best in the provincial distribution. That is why a handful of votes in Córdoba, Cádiz, Málaga, or Granada can be worth as much as a large difference in the overall result for Andalusia.
Córdoba: the remainder that could hurt the PP
Córdoba is one of the most sensitive provinces for the PP. It allocates 12 seats, and in 2022 the last deputy went to the Popular Party by a very narrow margin. According to the analysis of the official count from that year, Vox fell just 1,214 votes short of snatching that last seat from the PP.
This makes Córdoba a province to watch closely during the count. Not only because of the dispute between blocs, but because a seat moving there can have a direct effect on Moreno's absolute majority.
The province has also been very present in the final stretch of the campaign. The battle for the territorial vote, local references, and last-minute mobilization have an explanation: Córdoba is one of those constituencies where a small shift in votes can translate into a deputy.
Málaga: Moreno's province and one of the last most watched seats
Málaga distributes 17 deputies and has special political weight because Juanma Moreno is running for this province. In 2022, the PP won one of the last remaining seats there. Vox fell 3,795 votes short of securing that final deputy.
That data explains why Málaga will be one of the decisive screens of the night. If the PP holds onto the last seat, it strengthens its chances of a sufficient majority. If it loses it, the arithmetic tightens. Málaga is not just a large province. It is also a symbolic province for Moreno. Therefore, any variation in the last deputy will have a double reading: mathematical and political.
Cádiz: the PSOE is looking at one of the remaining seats that narrowly escaped them
Cádiz is another of the provinces where the last seat could be decisive. It distributes 15 deputies and in 2022 the PP won the last remaining seat with the PSOE very close: the socialists would have needed around 1,060 more votes to keep that deputy.
That margin makes Cádiz one of the most important provinces to measure the extent of the PSOE-A's resistance. For María Jesús Montero, each seat recovered in provinces like Cádiz can make the difference between a contained fall or a tougher night.
For the PP, on the other hand, losing a final deputy in Cádiz would be one of those small movements that can have a huge consequence: bringing an absolute majority closer or further away.
Granada: the territory where Adelante Andalucía can change the distribution
Granada distributes 13 seats and appears as one of the provinces where a deputy can "dance" between several parties. It is also one of the constituencies targeted by Adelante Andalucía to try to enter the distribution strongly. Andalusian media point out that José Ignacio García is seeking a deputy for this province, where his party did not obtain representation four years ago.
The key to Granada is that the movement does not only affect Adelante. If Adelante Andalucía enters or stays close, it can alter the final distribution between PP, PSOE, and the rest of the forces. It is a province of fine balance, where the last seat not only measures Moreno's majority, but also the competition within the left.
In 2022, the last deputy in Granada went to the PSOE, with the PP as the closest competitor in that final distribution. That is why Granada will have a double reading on Sunday: if the PP manages to snatch one more seat there, it can compensate for losses in other provinces; if the alternative left enters, it can reorder the board.
Seville: the largest province can also move the night
Seville distributes 18 deputies, more than any other province. In 2022, the PP took the last Sevillian seat and the PSOE was just over 1,000 votes away from snatching it. The calculation published from the official scrutiny placed the difference at barely 1,158 votes.
Although the focus of the final stretch has shifted towards Córdoba, Málaga, Cádiz, and Granada, Seville remains a structural province. Due to its size, its political weight, and being the constituency of María Jesús Montero, any change in the last Sevillian deputy can alter the general reading.
The PP needs to maintain its advantage; the PSOE needs to regain muscle in its former central territory; and the left to the left of the PSOE compete to avoid wasting votes in a province where distribution requires volume.
Huelva and Jaén: the remainders that can also measure the PSOE
Huelva and Jaén distribute 11 seats each. They are smaller provinces, but precisely because of that, the system can make each seat more decisive. In 2022, the PSOE benefited from the last remainder in both: in Jaén, with Vox at 2,294 votes; and in Huelva, with Por Andalucía falling short by just 651 votes.
That data is especially relevant for the left. In small provinces, fragmentation can punish more. A candidacy can gather thousands of votes and not translate them into a deputy if it stays below the last useful quotient.
Huelva, in particular, is a perfect example of how a seat can depend on a minimal distance. On a tight night, those remainders are not a technical note: they are parliamentary power.
Almería: Vox defended the last seat in 2022
Almería distributes 12 deputies. In 2022, the last seat went to Vox, with the PP at a much wider distance than in other provinces: 15,701 votes, according to the analysis of the official distribution. This makes it a less agonizing province than Córdoba, Cádiz, or Seville in terms of historical margin, but not irrelevant.
Almería will be important for measuring Vox's strength and for checking if the PP manages to absorb enough votes on the right or if Santiago Abascal's party maintains a solid floor. The battle here may be less about "a thousand votes" and more about block balance: how much Vox retains, how much the PP rises or falls, and whether the left manages to sustain representation.
The four provinces to watch first
If the electoral night needs to be ordered by the risk of the last seat, the four main provinces are clear:
- Córdoba, because the PP defended an extremely tight remainder in 2022.
- Málaga, because it is Moreno's province and the PP also secured a relevant last seat there.
- Cádiz, because the PSOE came very close to snatching a deputy from the PP.
- Granada, because it can decide both Moreno's majority and the entry or growth of Adelante Andalucía.
From there, Seville, Huelva, and Jaén are the second ring of monitoring. Seville by volume; Huelva and Jaén by the impact that the fragmentation of the left can have.