From Dublin, special envoy.– Usually, children who are not invited to a party organized by a friend get angry, stamp their feet, and even throw the typical threat: "You won't come to mine." Diplomats, by contrast, manage a more restrained "it's a good opportunity to discuss it." This Thursday, Dublin will play host to the summit of the European Political Community (EPC), at a time when Europeans are trying to strengthen their role in the negotiations about the future security architecture in Ukraine. A date that arrives in the middle of a redefinition of diplomatic balances, with a question on the table: what place will Europe take in the conversations that can determine the future of the continent?
The meeting coincides with a shift in the Community approach to foreign policy. Diplomatic sources believe the time has come to look the Kremlin in the eye and assume that, sooner or later, Europeans may have to sit down directly to negotiate with Moscow. "A moment may come when Europeans have to go and talk directly with the Russians. There are issues that perhaps should be resolved between us and them," note diplomatic sources at the highest level. The Ukrainian president Volodimir Zelenski has, in fact, warned ahead of this Thursday's summit that he wants the Europeans "on equal terms in these negotiations next time, because it is absolutely fair." That is, at the same level as the Russians.
After having taken part in the lead-up to the discussions held in Abu Dabi, which have brought Kyiv and Moscow back together around a negotiating table, the European Union believes it has arguments to demand active participation in this new diplomatic phase. The objective is clear: to have a seat at the table and prevent decisions about European security from being adopted without Europeans. A scenario that has the backing of the United States, whose envoys for Ukraine will also travel to the Irish capital to try to persuade the Kremlin of the need for the Twenty-Seven to be represented in this kind of dialogue.
A common voice before talking with Moscow
"It is absolutely natural that the current conversations being held in Abu Dhabi are also part of the equation," explains a senior community official before the quote. The truth is that Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni was the first to get ahead of her counterparts in raising the need to unify messages in this new chapter of the peace talks. That is to say, that Europeans speak with one voice and align their strategies when communicating with Moscow.
The move comes after Finland's prime minister, Alexander Stubb, picked up the phone directly to speak with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, two weeks ago. A contact that has once again put on the table the question of who should steer contacts with the Kremlin and to what extent member states can develop individual diplomatic initiatives without prior coordination between the capitals. "We need to choose who (is going to) represent Europe, and it is important. We need to choose very specific personalities, the leaders of Europe, who will represent Europe, and we must do it in November, because we count on the negotiations continuing," Volodimir Zelenski said this same Wednesday from Dublin.
The underlying concern is that opening different channels of communication ends up weakening Europe's negotiating position. In a scenario in which Washington has taken on leadership of the contacts and Ukraine participates directly in the talks, the Twenty-Seven seek to prevent their interests from being relegated to a second plane. The issue is no longer only how to contribute to a possible peace agreement, but also how to guarantee that Europe has the capacity to exert influence over the security conditions that will be established for the continent.
Once the doors of the room are closed and the leaders begin to debate, the President of the European Council, António Costa, will ask those capitals—like Rome—that have raised the need to have a common mandate on Ukraine to put their proposals on the table, according to sources from his circle. "There is an ongoing negotiation process. That process has been led by the United States, of course, along with the Ukrainians. And it has been established that Europe is present in that process," they maintain in Brussels.
Security guarantees, in the hands of the Member States
Costa’s team argues that the Member States must play a greater role in matters relating to security guarantees. The position of the President of the European Council involves preventing any commitment that could affect the security of European countries from being adopted without involving them. "No Member State will be left out of the decision regarding its own security guarantees or its own contribution to them," they maintain from his office.
In his circle they do detect that "a new dynamic is opening up in these negotiations," although it is still complicated to anticipate how far it can go. "We’ll see where this leads," they insinuate with a certain skepticism. Caution is tied to a diplomatic scenario that is still open, in which contacts between Washington, Kyiv and Moscow are advancing through their own channels and in which European participation continues to be one of the issues to be resolved.
At the same time, the Elysée is promoting a declaration on the principles "key to European security". French President Emmanuel Macron will seek to gather support among the member States participating in the summit to "recall the basic principles," without linking the initiative to "any other ongoing process."
The proposal seeks to take advantage of the margins of the European Political Community, a forum that brings together countries beyond the Twenty-Seven and that allows positions to be articulated with European partners that are not part of the Union. The French intention would be to push forward a declaration that lays the foundations for the continent’s commitment to its own security, without directly interfering in the negotiations that are being developed in other formats.
The initiative adds a political dimension to a summit that transcends community borders. The security architecture that could emerge from a possible agreement on Ukraine will not affect only the Member States, but also the entire set of European countries that share the consequences of the war and the uncertainties about the future of relations with Russia.
Brussels asks for gestures from Moscow while Washington makes its move
A day before the meetings in Dublin, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, invited from the floor of the European Parliament Russian authorities to demonstrate “their good faith” in the negotiations underway. From Brussels they insist that the goal is “to achieve peace” and that humanitarian corridors be enabled to allow progress in the reunification of families separated by the conflict.
However, in the corridors of European institutions a certain skepticism also spreads about the ability of current contacts to produce immediate results. “Nothing seems like it will change in the short term,” acknowledge community sources. Caution thus coexists with the will to take advantage of any diplomatic window so that the European Union is not displaced from a process that directly affects its strategic interests.
The Dublin agenda will also have a transatlantic component. This Friday, representatives from Washington, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will travel to the Irish capital to meet with the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski, after their contacts with the Kremlin scheduled also for this Thursday.
The U.S. delegation intends to “review” with their Russian counterparts “what was discussed today and try to move further on some of the issues we have addressed.” “We see some avenues for dialogue and opportunities in that sense,” they convey from the White House. Among the issues that Washington wants to address is precisely the possibility of “bringing the Europeans into the format.”
The American movement presents a new opportunity for European leaders to claim a more defined role in the talks. The presence of Witkoff and Kushner in Dublin will make it possible to pass directly to Zelenski the results of contacts with Moscow, while also opening a window to discuss how to integrate European partners into the next phases of the process.
The Dublin summit thus arrives at a time when Europe is trying to move from demanding its presence to defining what it can contribute to the negotiation. Coordination between capitals, security guarantees, and dialogue with Russia will be some of the keys to a discussion that still has no clear outcome. While Washington keeps its channels open with Moscow and Kyiv, Europeans are seeking to prevent the future security of the continent from being decided at a table where they are again the last-minute guests.