Brazil has begun to know the results of its presidential elections this Sunday, October 4. The publication of the national count started at 17:00 in Brasília, 22:00 in mainland Spain, with attention focused on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro.
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) incorporates the results as it receives and processes the ballot reports. The initial percentages correspond only to the sections counted in each update: they are not a projection of the final result.
First cut released: Bolsonaro ahead with 1.97% counted
In one of the first cuts shared by Electodatos, with 1.97% counted according to that publication, Flávio Bolsonaro had 1,127,851 votes and 49.36%. Lula had 961,557 votes and 42.08%.
These data describe the start of the count, not its definitive state nor necessarily its most recent update. With such a small proportion counted, they do not allow anticipating who will finish first nor if there will be a second round.
The reference for consulting the subsequent evolution is the official results portal of the Superior Electoral Court, which gathers the national totalization.
Why the first percentages may change
The count does not incorporate a sample designed to represent the whole of Brazil. It adds real results as they arrive, but the territories and pending sections may have different preferences from those already counted.
Therefore, an initial advantage may widen, narrow, or reverse. It does not imply that voters are changing their votes during the night, but that new ballots are being added to the total.
The TSE distinguishes two steps: each electronic ballot box counts its votes and generates a report; then, those reports are transmitted and aggregated to obtain the election result.
What a candidate needs to win tonight
The Presidency is decided in the first round if a candidate obtains more than half of the valid votes. Blank and null votes are excluded from that calculation.
If no one exceeds that threshold, the two most voted candidates will go to a second round on Sunday, October 25. Finishing first this Sunday, therefore, does not necessarily equate to having won the Presidency.
Where to consult the official results of Brazil
The TSE Results system allows following the presidential election and the other votes held this Sunday. It is also available through a mobile application.
To interpret each update, it is advisable to check together the counted percentage, the votes of each candidate, and the time of the data. Comparing figures published at different times can create a misleading image of the distance between the candidates.
The election night will resolve two unknowns: who leads the national result and whether they gather the necessary majority to close the election. Until then, the partial results are provisional results, not a proclamation of victory.incluyd las encuestas