Democrats have regained much of the support they lost among Latino and Asian voters in the 2024 presidential elections and have also managed to prevail among white women and those under 45. Polls of this Tuesday’s legislative elections show a decline for the Republican Party in nearly all population groups, including some that were decisive for Donald Trump’s victory two years ago.
Sixty percent of Latinos have voted for Democrats, compared with 35% who have supported the Republicans, while among Asians the difference is even greater, at 69% versus 29%. Republicans retain the majority of the white vote, although their advantage has been reduced from fifteen to four points compared with 2024.
The data come from polls conducted on election day and correspond to the vote for the House of Representatives. Comparing them with the 2024 presidential elections makes it possible to see how support for both parties has changed, although it does not determine how many voters have switched their vote.
Latino men move from voting for Trump to giving the majority to Democrats
The Latino vote has been one of the main changes of these elections. Two years ago, Kamala Harris obtained 51% of the votes of this group, compared with 46% for Trump. Now, Democrats have reached 60% and Republicans have fallen to 35%.
The difference is especially pronounced among Latino men, who in 2024 gave Trump 54% of their votes, versus 44% for Harris. In the legislative elections, 55% have supported the Democrats and 41% the Republicans. The ten-point advantage Trump had has turned into a fourteen-point difference in favor of his opponents.
Among Latino women, the Democratic Party has obtained 65% of the votes, compared with 31% for Republicans. The gap between the two parties reaches 34 points.
These results contrast with the 2024 presidential elections, when Trump managed to considerably reduce the Democratic advantage among Hispanics, especially among men.
Democrats expand their advantage among Asians
Sixty-nine percent of Asian Americans have voted for Democrats, compared with 29% who have chosen Republicans. The difference between the two parties reaches 40 points, compared with the fifteen points that separated Harris and Trump in 2024.
Two years ago, the Democratic candidate received 55% of the Asian vote and Trump 40%. The new polls reflect a fourteen-point rise for the Democrats and an eleven-point drop for the Republicans.
Also among voters grouped in the category of other origins, the Democrats have achieved a majority, with 52% versus 43%.
White women also vote mostly Democrat
Republicans remain the most voted-for force among white Americans, although they have lost a large part of the advantage they had in the previous presidential elections.
Trump received 57% of his votes in 2024, compared to 42% for Harris. In these legislative elections, Republicans have received 51% and Democrats 47%, which reduces the difference from fifteen to four points.
Among white women, the Democrats have even achieved a small lead, with 50% of the votes compared to the 48% Republican. Two years ago, this group had voted mostly for Trump.
White men continue to be the main Republican support among the groups analyzed. 55% have voted for their candidates, compared to 42% who have chosen Democrats, although the distance has also narrowed compared to 2024.
Democrats gain a 30-point margin among young white people
The results by age show that Democrats have improved especially among those under 45 years old, both white and from other backgrounds.
Among whites aged 18 to 29, 60% have voted Democrat and 38% Republican. The 22-point difference represents a 30-point improvement in the Democratic margin compared to the 2024 presidential election.
Among young non-whites of the same age, Democrats have obtained 83% of the votes, compared to 15% for the Republicans. Their advantage has increased by 32 points compared to two years ago.
The trend repeats among voters aged 30 to 44. Democrats have won 55% of the white vote, compared to 43% Republican, and have widened their margin by 22 points compared to 2024.
Among non-white voters in that age bracket, Democratic support reaches 75%, compared to 23% Republican. The difference has increased by 26 points.
The four groups have voted mostly Democrat, although support is much higher among young non-whites. The data also show that the improvement compared to 2024 has been considerable among white people under 45.
91% of Black women vote Democrat
African Americans still remain the group that most supports the Democratic Party. 88% have voted for its candidates, compared with 9% who have chosen Republicans.
Among Black women, Democratic support reaches 91%, while Republicans receive 7%. The difference is somewhat smaller among Black men, with 84% and 13%, respectively.
In the 2024 presidential election, Harris obtained 86% of the African American vote, compared with 13% for Trump. Democrats have gained two points compared with that election and Republicans have lost four.