Three weeks ago, Jon Ralston still saw Republican Joe Lombardo as having options to withstand a bad night for his party. In his final forecast for the Tuesday, November 3 election, the Nevada journalist leans toward his rival, Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. What has made him change his mind is the early turnout in two places where the election will be decided: Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, and Washoe County, where Reno is located.
The 46% to 45% is a personal prediction, not the result of a poll. Ralston combines the record of those who have already voted with information from the campaigns and his own reading of the state. He completes his forecast with a detail that may prove decisive in such a close race: he attributes 4% to another candidate, Danielle Ford, and 5% to the option that allows the voter to reject all the candidates.
Las Vegas and Reno explain why Lombardo is in danger
The most striking signal comes from Washoe. Republicans there lead Democrats in the voter registration by about three points. However, among those who had already cast their ballot by the end of the analysis, those registered as Democrats had a five-point lead. In Clark, the difference in early turnout was even greater: 13.4 points in favor of the Democrats. Those data reveal who has voted, but the content of each ballot remains secret.
Lombardo has reason to trust that part of those votes are his. He was sheriff of Clark and in 2022 he lost the county by only six points to then-Democratic governor Steve Sisolak, whom he ultimately defeated statewide. That year, moreover, some 47,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats went to vote on Election Day. The question on Tuesday is whether he will be able to repeat that mobilization with Donald Trump in the White House instead of Joe Biden.
The Republican exception is in Congress
The “blue wave” anticipated by Ralston would have its most important consequence in the state government. For the United States House of Representatives, his forecast leaves a three-to-one split: the Democrats would win districts 1, 3 and 4, and Republican David Flippo would keep district 2 for his party. Even there he foresees a tight outcome: 46% for Flippo, 44% for Democratic Teresa Benitez-Thompson and 10% for Lynn Chapman.
The 2024 precedent helps explain why an advantage in turnout does not guarantee victory. Then, Ralston himself predicted that Kamala Harris would win Nevada by the narrowest margin. After Trump’s victory, he acknowledged that he had identified voters whom the Democrats managed to get to the polls, but had miscalculated whom they were going to support.
Hence the key to following Nevada on Tuesday night: if Lombardo appears first, it will be necessary to look at how much mail-in voting remains outstanding before interpreting that advantage. Ralston believes those ballots can give Ford the final point he needs. If the governor manages to attract enough independents and Democrats from Las Vegas, that same point can go to the Republican side.