The two-week ceasefire in the Iran war, agreed on April 8 between Washington and Tehran, enters its second and final weekend with a mix of relative calm and concern surrounding the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the core of the conflict, after U.S. President Donald Trump opted on Friday to maintain the blockade on the perimeter of the area.
Iran has replied that the strait remains under its control, that any vessel intending to cross it must obtain authorization from the Revolutionary Guard following a route set by Iranian authorities, and that, in essence, Trump's announcement does not alter the original conditions of the ceasefire agreement at all.
In the last few hours, and according to data from the maritime analysis provider MarineTraffic cited by the pan-Arab channel Al Jazeera, a convoy of at least four ships has crossed the strait, including liquefied petroleum gas vessels, several oil tankers, and petrochemical cargo ships. Another de-escalation gesture has come from the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, which this morning announced the partial reopening of airspace and several airports starting at 07:00.
Possible conversations and risk of war resumption
In this context, Trump has left the door open to prolonging the ceasefire beyond the two weeks planned if no agreement is reached with Tehran before Wednesday. "I don't know. Maybe I won't extend it, but the blockade will remain in place," he stated, despite Iranian warnings that such a decision would constitute a clear violation of the agreed-upon terms.
The US president has announced that a delegation from his country will travel on Sunday to Islamabad to address the possibility of resuming talks with Iran the following day, although he has insisted that, if the dialogue is not satisfactory to him, "we will have to start dropping bombs again".
In parallel, the head of the Pakistani Army, Marshal Asim Munir, has concluded this Friday a three-day visit to Iran, where he met with the main Iranian leaders and negotiators, including the President of Parliament, Mohamed Baqer Qalifab, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araqchi, as part of efforts to end the war.
The Pakistan Army, considered the most powerful institution in the country, has presented Munir's trip as a demonstration of "Pakistan's unwavering determination to facilitate a negotiated solution and promote peace, stability, and prosperity."
Iran's Conditions and Debate Over Frozen Assets
The possible new round of contacts in Pakistan faces, in any case, the same obstacles as the one from the previous week. Tehran insists on its right to maintain a nuclear program of a civil nature, has claimed compensation for the human and material damages caused by the bombings of the US and Israel, and has once again brought to the fore the issue of the billions of euros in Iranian assets currently frozen by Washington.
Trump has been forced to deny a report from the portal Axios that pointed to the unlocking of almost 17 billion euros of those funds in exchange for Iran renouncing its enriched uranium reserves.
Some allies of the president, such as Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, have shown their concern about the possibility that Trump accepts a pact similar to the one signed by former President Barack Obama in 2015, when the historic nuclear deal with Iran (from which Trump withdrew in 2018, during his first term) allowed the Islamic Republic's return to international markets.
"I have full confidence that President Trump will not allow Iran to enrich uranium for tens of billions of dollars in exchange for holding the world hostage and sowing chaos in the region," Graham wrote on Friday on X, before underlining, in the same vein as the president, that "there will be no similar deals under the Trump Presidency."
Lebanon, Hezbollah and the regional impact of the ceasefire
Another of the decisive fronts is the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon, as Iran has made the maintenance of its cessation of hostilities with the United States dependent on the evolution of the conflict between Israel and the Shiite militias of Hezbollah, allies of Tehran.
The ceasefire in Lebanese territory is maintained, although the newspaper L'Orient le Jour has reported that Israel bombed the town of Marjayoun last night, in the south of the country, with no confirmed victims for now, as part of the Israeli military operation to control the southern strip up to the Litani River, defined by the Israeli Army as a "buffer zone" from which it does not plan to withdraw at the moment.
The president of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, has indicated this Friday that he will demand Israel's withdrawal of its troops from the south within the framework of open direct talks with the Israeli government to try to resolve the crisis.
In a message disseminated on social media, Aoun has appealed for "a single national responsibility" to assert the State's leadership in negotiations that will address Hezbollah's disarmament as a prerequisite for peace and which, for now, the Shiite militias reject as long as the Israeli military presence in the area continues.
"Direct negotiations are precise and detailed, and national responsibility must be singular in the next stage, because the eyes of the world are turned towards Lebanon," stated the Head of State.
In her statement, Aoun detailed the Lebanese Executive's demands, starting with the consolidation of the recently initiated ceasefire and continuing with "the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the occupied southern territories, the return of prisoners, and the settlement of pending border disputes."
The Lebanese president maintains that he has Donald Trump's backing for this, as the US president conveyed to him personally on Thursday in a telephone conversation, who during the call defended the need to "preserve the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of the country," according to Aoun.