For Donald Trump, it would be enough for only part of the latest The New York Times and Siena poll to come true for him to lose control of the Senate. On the eve of the Tuesday, November 3 midterm elections, the Democrats are ahead of their Republican rivals in Texas, Maine, Ohio and Kansas. If they won those four seats and kept all their own, they would reach 51 senators, the absolute majority. In that scenario they would not even need to win the two closest races in the survey: Alaska and Iowa.
That is the scope of the possible «blue wave» drawn by Siena. It is also its limit: the Democrats have several paths to a majority, but none of those seats is won. The institute conducted the polling round between October 23 and November 1. Its director, Don Levy, considers a Senate upset possible and warns that the margins in several states still allow either party a majority.
Texas is the big alert for Republicans; Michigan, the biggest Democratic lead
The highest number is in Michigan, but the most important for changing the majority may be in Texas. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed gets 53% against Mike Rogers's 42%. Those eleven points would serve the Democrats to keep the seat left by Gary Peters. In Texas, however, James Talarico's 50% against Ken Paxton's 43% would mean taking a senator away from Trump's party. The distinction matters: Michigan protects the starting number; Texas increases it.
There is another reason to read the Michigan result carefully. Haley Stevens, the congresswoman whom El-Sayed defeated in the primaries, announced her support for Republican Rogers on Sunday, November 1, the same day the interview round ended. The eleven points offer a reference for evaluating the race, but they do not allow the voters' reaction to that break to be measured separately.
What the Senate polls say, state by state
| State | Democrat | Republican | Dem. lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | El-Sayed · 53% | Rogers · 42% | 11 points |
| Texas | Talarico · 50% | Paxton · 43% | 7 points |
| Maine | Jackson · 51% | Collins · 45% | 6 points |
| Ohio | Brown · 49% | Husted · 44% | 5 points |
| Kansas | Hamilton · 49% | Marshall · 44% | 5 points |
| Alaska | Peltola · 48% | Sullivan · 46% | 2 points |
| Iowa | Turek · 48% | Hinson · 47% | 1 point |
In Maine, Troy Jackson reaches 51% against 45% for Republican Senator Susan Collins. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown has the chance to return to the Senate for the seat left vacant by Vice President JD Vance. And in Kansas, Adam Hamilton leads Senator Roger Marshall by five points, although he is at 49% and a third candidate, the libertarian David Graham, gets 4%.
Alaska and Iowa tell another story. In the first, Mary Peltola beats Senator Dan Sullivan by 48% to 46%. In the second, Josh Turek gets 48% and Ashley Hinson, 47%. With sampling margins of error of five points in Alaska and 4.7 in Iowa for likely voters, neither of the two leads allows a clear favorite to be identified.
The Texas surprise: seven points in the Senate, only one for governor
The best clue against an automatic reading of the blue wave is in Texas's own ballot. The same polls that give Talarico a seven-point lead in the Senate place Democrat Gina Hinojosa only one point ahead of Republican Governor Greg Abbott: 48% to 47%. The contrast is repeated in Kansas. Hamilton leads his rival by five points in the Senate, while Democrat Cindy Holscher only edges Republican Ty Masterson by one in the gubernatorial election.
In Iowa the opposite happens: the Senate race is practically tied, but Democrat Rob Sand enjoys an eight-point lead for governor. That difference sums up what is at stake for Trump on Tuesday. There are enough Republican seats in play for the majority to change, even without a Democratic victory in every state. What the polls do not support is the vote moving as a bloc: within the same state, changing candidate and office is enough for a comfortable lead to turn into a tie.