Spain has concrete interests in the presidential elections that Brazil is holding this Sunday, October 25. The dispute between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro will determine who leads a country where Spanish companies manage banks, electric networks, telecommunications, and airports. It will also define Madrid's interlocutor in a relationship that has gained political weight with the first bilateral summit, held in April in Barcelona.
What is at stake for Spain encompasses the security of investments, the conditions for accessing new contracts, and the evolution of trade exchanges. The dimension of that exposure explains the business interest: in February 2025, the Secretary of State for Trade placed Spain as the second largest foreign investor in Brazil, with more than 41.6 billion euros invested.
The Spanish companies looking at Brazil
The Spanish presence spans essential sectors of the Brazilian economy. Santander has a banking business established in the country; Telefónica operates through Vivo; and Iberdrola develops its activity through Neoenergia. The documentation from Foreign Affairs also includes Spanish companies in automotive, food, industry, and publishing.
In electricity, the figures allow measuring the extent of that presence. Iberdrola reports 16.8 million consumers and about 760,000 kilometers of power lines in Brazil, with data as of the end of the first half of 2026. Its investment forecast until 2028 reaches 5 billion euros. Decisions on tariffs, concessions, energy planning, and network remuneration are, therefore, part of the environment in which long-term Spanish investments are executed.
There is also a direct exposure of the Spanish airport manager. Aena manages 17 Brazilian airports, which recorded more than 3.8 million passengers just in September, according to its latest published monthly statistics. The growth of traffic and the conditions of the concessions are relevant variables for that business. aena.es
From an economic perspective, the Spanish interest consists of the next Government offering a predictable framework for operating and investing. This requires observing its fiscal and regulatory decisions, the stability of contracts, and the evolution of the economy, in addition to the electoral outcome.
Oil, food, and industrial exports
The commercial relationship also connects the Brazilian choice with Spanish companies and supply chains. According to the 2024 data collected in the Foreign Affairs file, Spain exported goods to Brazil worth 3.234 billion euros and imported worth 8.767 billion. Among the Spanish sales, machinery, fuels, medicines, and chemical products stood out. In the purchases, fuels, oilseeds, minerals, and coffee were prominent.
These exchanges explain why the conditions for access to the Brazilian market and the continuity of supply are relevant for Spain. As an economic reading, an increase in Brazilian demand can open opportunities for Spanish exporters, while price variations and exchange rates can modify costs and margins.
Mercosur: an agreement that has already begun to be applied
The result comes, moreover, in a new phase of commercial relations between Europe and South America. The interim trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur has been provisionally applied since May 1, 2026, with the elimination of tariffs for certain products from day one.
For Spain, the issue now is how to take advantage of that opening: exports, investments, and business cooperation. The Ministry of Commerce has identified opportunities in areas such as infrastructure and renewable energies.
The other side is in the sectors exposed to greater competition. The EU has approved a regulation on agricultural safeguards to allow a response when the increase in imports from Mercosur threatens to cause serious harm to European producers. The evolution of the agreement, therefore, affects both companies seeking to sell in Brazil and farmers demanding protection in the community market.
Sánchez and Lula have strengthened the bilateral relationship
The political dimension has a recent precedent: Pedro Sánchez and Lula presided over the first Spain-Brazil Summit on April 17, in Barcelona. The meeting elevated the bilateral dialogue and was accompanied by agreements between both governments. Among them is a memorandum on critical minerals, an area linked to industrial needs and the energy transition.
A reelection of Lula would maintain the interlocutor with whom the Spanish Executive has built that agenda. A victory of Flávio Bolsonaro would open a new political stage and would require checking what priorities he maintains, which ones he modifies, and how he develops cooperation with Madrid.
The ballots decide who will manage a long-term economic and institutional relationship. For companies, the subsequent examination will be in the regulations, contracts, and investments. For the Government, it will be in the ability to preserve cooperation with Brazil and advance in bilateral commitments.