The PSC would win again the regional elections in Catalonia, although with wear and tear, according to the latest barometer from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) published this Thursday, July 9. The survey places the socialists led by Salvador Illa as the leading force, with an estimate of between 36 and 38 seats, ahead of ERC, which would be in second place with 24-26 deputies.
The main novelty that the poll advances is the progress of Aliança Catalana. The formation led by Sílvia Orriols would go from the current two seats to a range of 23-25 deputies, which would place it as the third force in the Parliament and very close to ERC. Furthermore, it would surpass Junts, which would fall to 16-18 seats.
The PSC holds, but loses ground
In vote intention, the PSC is at 24%, ahead of ERC with 18%, and Aliança Catalana, which would reach 15%. Junts would be at 12%, while PP and Vox would tie at 10%. The CUP and Comuns Sumar would both be at 5%.
The poll depicts a more fragmented scenario. The PSC would continue to be the most voted party, although it would lose between four and six seats compared to its current representation.
Aliança Catalana changes the board
The leap of Aliança Catalana is the most relevant political data from the barometer. The party would go from a testimonial presence in the Parliament to competing for second place in Catalonia, with a rise that places it ahead of Junts and very close to ERC.
The rise of AC particularly strains the pro-independence space, where Junts appears as the main loser. The survey also consolidates a relevant presence of radical right-wing forces: Aliança Catalana and Vox could together account for nearly 28% of the Parliament.
| Position | Party | Vote intention |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSC | 24.0% |
| 2 | ERC | 18.0% |
| 3 | Aliança Catalana | 15.0% |
| 4 | Junts | 12.0% |
| 5 | PP | 10.0% |
| 5 | Vox | 10.0% |
| 7 | CUP | 5.0% |
| 7 | Comuns Sumar | 5.0% |
Source: survey by the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió of Catalonia, July 9, 2026.
Illa's majority, tighter
The barometer also complicates parliamentary arithmetic. The majority that allowed Salvador Illa's investiture —PSC, ERC, and Comuns— would be very tight and might not reach an absolute majority in the least favorable scenario.
The survey was conducted between May and June 2026 and comes after months of delay in the publication of the CEO's first barometer of the year, attributed to administrative problems in the contracting of the companies responsible for the fieldwork.