Marga Prohens' PP would win the regional elections in the Balearic Islands again and would close the gap with the absolute majority, although it would still need Vox to control the Parliament. This is according to an internal poll commissioned by the Balearic Popular Party, conducted by NC Report and published by Diario de Mallorca.
According to the poll, the Popular Party would reach 38.5% of the votes and obtain 28 seats, three more than the 25 achieved in the 2023 regional elections. The absolute majority in the Balearic Parliament is set at 30 deputies, so Prohens would be two representatives short of being able to govern without external support.
Vox would also grow in vote percentage, although not in seats. The party would go from 14.1% obtained in 2023 to 15%, but would maintain its current eight deputies. With that result, PP and Vox would add up to 36 seats, a broad majority compared to the left-wing bloc.
PP rises to 28 seats
The poll paints a favorable scenario for Marga Prohens one year before the regional elections scheduled for 2027. The PP would gain three deputies compared to the last elections and consolidate its hegemony on the islands.
The popular advance would occur mainly at the expense of the PSIB-PSOE and Podemos. According to the poll, the PP would snatch one socialist seat in Mallorca, another in Ibiza, and would also absorb the deputy that Podemos obtained in Menorca in 2023.
The result would leave Prohens in a more comfortable position than the current one, although not enough to reach the absolute majority on her own. The Balearic president would continue to depend on Vox to ensure control of the Chamber.
Vox maintains its eight deputies despite growing in votes
Vox would also improve slightly in votes, but this increase would not translate into more parliamentary representation. The party would retain its current eight seats, according to the PP's internal poll.
The political key is that Vox would continue to be necessary for Prohens to maintain a stable parliamentary majority. With 28 deputies from the PP and 8 from Vox, the right-wing bloc would reach 36 representatives in a Parliament of 59 seats.
This result would even surpass the 35 seats that José Ramón Bauzá obtained at the time and would leave the Balearic left far from regaining the Government.
PSIB would lose two seats
The main victim of the poll would be the PSIB-PSOE. The socialists would go from 18 to 16 deputies and would obtain 23.9% of the votes, three points less than in 2023.
According to the poll, the wear and tear of the Pedro Sánchez brand at the state level would affect the party in the Balearic Islands. Some socialist voters would shift to the PP, to Més, or abstain.
Despite the fall, the PSIB would remain the second political force on the islands. It would also maintain its strength in Menorca, where it would retain its four seats.
Ibiza reinforces the PP's lead
Ibiza appears as one of the most favorable territories for the PP in this survey. The popular party would go from 7 to 8 deputies on the island, at the expense of the PSOE, which would drop to 3. Vox would maintain its representative.
That move would help explain a good part of Prohens' overall rise. The socialist loss in Ibiza and Mallorca would allow the PP to widen its territorial advantage and approach an autonomous absolute majority.
The survey also shows that the disputed seat of Formentera would remain in the hands of the PP-linked brand, albeit with a minimal margin against the left. The poll itself points to a technical tie in that constituency.
Més gains votes, but not seats
Més would also grow in electoral support, going from 8.5% to 9.9% of the votes. However, this increase would not allow it to increase its representation in the Parliament.
The eco-sovereigntist party would retain its six deputies: four for Mallorca and two for Menorca. According to the survey, part of its growth would come from disillusioned PSOE voters.
The data confirms that the socialist weakening would not only benefit the PP. Més would also capture part of that space, although without translating it into new seats.
Podemos would lose its only deputy
Izquierda Unida-Podemos would be left out of the Balearic Parliament according to the poll. The party would lose the only representative it obtained in Menorca in the 2023 elections.
That loss would facilitate the PP's advance in the final seat distribution and reinforce the right-wing bloc's majority. The Balearic left would be reduced to 22 deputies compared to the 36 for PP and Vox.
The survey thus paints a particularly difficult scenario for the progressive bloc, which would not only fail to regain ground but would also be further away from contesting the parliamentary majority.
Prohens retains votes and curbs defections to Vox
One of the most relevant internal data from the poll is the loyalty of the popular vote. According to the survey, Prohens would retain 84.7% of its 2023 voters and limit defections to Vox.
The PP would also attract voters from the PSOE, Vox, and El Pi. However, this last regionalist party would manage to retain a large part of its electorate despite remaining outside the Parliament.
The study also contradicts a widespread perception about young voters. According to the PP's internal survey, voters between 18 and 29 years old would lean mostly towards Prohens rather than Vox.
Source: NC Report for Diario de Mallorca, published on 05/31/2026.
| PARTY | SEATS | SEATS |
| PP | 28 | 38.5 |
| PSOE | 16 | 23.9 |
| Vox | 8 | 15 |
| MÈS | 4 | 9.9 |
| Sá Unió | 1 | 0.4 |