The Ethiopian citizenry is called this Monday to vote in general elections in which the party of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed starts as the clear favorite to renew power. The date with the polls comes amid a surge of instability in the regions of Tigray and Amhara, in the north of the country, and in a context of growing power struggles throughout the Horn of Africa.
The Prosperity Party (PP), led by Abiy, is seen as the almost certain winner of these elections. The opposition denounces, however, an increase in repression over the civic space and the absence of real conditions to compete on equal terms, which, in its view, prevents channeling a political change at the polls after the cycle opened with the arrival of the current head of government in April 2018.
The president of the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE, by its acronym in English), Melatwork Hailu, stated on Friday that the body has carried out "robust work" to ensure the representativeness of the process, with 47 parties and about 11,000 candidates for seats. Likewise, she defended that the institution will work to guarantee elections that are "free, fair, credible, and independent," according to the Fana television channel.
Abiy, an Oromo leader of 49 years, assumed the position of prime minister in February 2018 after the resignation of Hailemariam Desalegn. As soon as he came to power, he promoted a package of reforms and sealed a historic peace agreement with neighboring Eritrea, which earned him the support of much of the international community and the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
Nevertheless, expectations of political openness were soon overshadowed by accusations of a return to repressive practices and, above all, by the outbreak of the war against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) between 2020 and 2022. This group had been the central pillar of the former ruling coalition until the emergence of Abiy, and during the conflict the federal forces counted on the military support of Eritrea.
Despite the relative relief brought by the November 2022 peace agreement and the creation of an interim administration in Tigray, tension has grown again in recent months. The exclusion of the TPLF from these elections and its maneuvers to regain control of the regional government have raised fears of a resumption of the conflict.
The leader of the TPLF, Debretsion Gebremichael, took control of the institutions of Tigray at the beginning of May, displacing Tadesse Werede, backed by Addis Ababa. He did so after months of mutual accusations over breaches of the peace agreement, in a context in which Ethiopia has even accused Eritrea of once again supporting the Tigrayan group, a claim that Asmara rejects.
Elections under the weight of internal conflict
The voting will take place, once again, amid a deep internal crisis, with the aforementioned tensions in Tigray and Amhara, the latter also being the scene of clashes between the federal Army and the Fano militias, which were previously allies of Addis Ababa. Added to this is the instability in Oromia, where government forces maintain sporadic clashes with the insurgents of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).
These offensives and counteroffensives have caused the displacement of tens of thousands of civilians and have complicated Abiy's attempts to fulfill his promises of pacification and stability. Internal criticism and the distrust of part of the international community towards some actions of the Government contrast with the expectations of the Executive, which trusts that the polls will reinforce its legitimacy.
In this context, the electoral commission has announced that voting will not be possible in more than 45 constituencies of Tigray and Amhara, citing security reasons and political disputes. This decision threatens to undermine the representativeness of the final result and leaves out a significant part of the electorate of both regions.
These are the first elections since 2021, when Abiy managed to renew his mandate. The Government maintains that a new victory, which is practically taken for granted, will consolidate the position of the PP, created by the prime minister himself in December 2019 as the heir to the historic Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The exit of the TPLF from this coalition was the prelude to the armed conflict in Tigray.
Beyond internal violence, Amnesty International has warned about the "intensification of repression" against freedom of the press in Ethiopia, which it describes as "a cynical attempt to silence criticism" on the eve of the elections. The organization documents arbitrary detentions, forced disappearances, and illegal surveillance of journalists.
"The Ethiopian authorities must reverse these increasingly authoritarian trends and immediately put an end to this campaign of repression against the media," declared this week the director of the NGO for Eastern and Southern Africa, Tigere Chagutah. Likewise, he urged the international community to "speak out against the systematic dismantling of the country's independent media, as citizens prepare to vote."
Geopolitical pressure in the Horn of Africa
In parallel to the domestic crisis, Ethiopia is being dragged by regional rivalries in the Horn of Africa, a scene of a struggle between two blocs with external support led by Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE), reflecting their own disputes in the Middle East.
The accumulated frictions with Sudan and Egypt over the great Ethiopian dam on the Blue Nile have also been transferred to Addis Ababa's positioning regarding the war that broke out in April 2023 between the Sudanese Army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Khartoum has repeatedly accused Ethiopia of leaning in favor of the RSF, which count the UAE as their main ally, and has even denounced recent drone attacks coming from Ethiopian territory. For its part, Addis Ababa maintains that the TPLF has aligned itself with the regular Sudanese forces, backed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey.
Adding to this climate is the meeting held in the port city of Port Sudan, the provisional seat of the Sudanese Government during the years of war with the RSF. In this meeting, Ethiopian opposition groups and representatives from Eritrea and Sudan participated, under the umbrella of the 'Tsimdo' initiative. The Ethiopian authorities view this forum with suspicion, considering it a possible source of instability for their national security.
At the same time, Ethiopia has strengthened its ties with the separatist Somali region of Somaliland. In 2024, it signed a memorandum of understanding with Hargeisa that unleashed a serious diplomatic crisis with Somalia, within the framework of Ethiopian attempts to regain its own access to the Red Sea, considered essential for the economic future of the most populous country in the Horn of Africa.
The geopolitical equation became even more complicated when Israel became in December 2025 the first State to recognize the independence of Somaliland, a decision rejected outright by Somalia, the African Union, and the Arab League. Added to this are the growing relations between Hargeisa and UAE, a firm ally of Ethiopia, which in 2020 normalized ties with Israel, thus opening a new strategic front in the region.
In this scenario of internal tensions and external pressures, the elections are being held at a decisive moment for the immediate future of Ethiopia. However, expectations of a substantial shift in the top of the power structure or in the policies of Addis Ababa are low. Everything points to Abiy obtaining a new mandate to try to steer the country amid multiple overlapping crises that threaten the stability of the giant of the Horn of Africa.