Amundi leans towards greater diversification of equities by both sectors and geographies and anticipates that emerging markets "offer selective opportunities" that could be favored by capital rotation.
In its outlook for the second half of the year, the manager points out that opportunities linked to artificial intelligence are shifting along the entire value chain, from energy, infrastructure, and equipment to software, robotics, and adopting companies.
With a long-term view, Amundi foresees a rebound in capital expenditure in Europe, supported by the growing emphasis on strategic autonomy in areas such as defense, energy, infrastructure, and artificial intelligence.
"The region will benefit as investors seek opportunities beyond dollar-denominated assets," the entity emphasizes.
Within this investment approach, the firm believes that emerging markets will also be boosted by capital rotation, which is why it shows a preference for the debt of these economies, commodity-exporting countries, and technological opportunities in Asia.
The investment house maintains a "fragile de-escalation" as its central scenario in an environment of massive adoption of artificial intelligence. "We expect a fragile de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices around 80-90 dollars per barrel by the end of the year," it notes.
Amundi has revised down most of its growth projections, anticipating an increase in crude oil prices to the mentioned range, which, in its opinion, will help the global economy avoid a recession.
According to the firm, central banks will prioritize anchoring inflation expectations over direct support for growth. In this context, it expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the main central banks of emerging markets to keep rates stable, while the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will undertake an additional rate hike before the end of the year.
At the same time, Amundi maintains a neutral stance on China and a positive view on India, as the structural growth story of the latter economy "remains intact despite its vulnerability to the oil shock."
In the fixed income arena, the management company opts for a flexible allocation by regions, with a certain inclination towards Europe, for inflation-linked bonds and for companies with solid balance sheets and quality 'carry' within 'investment grade' credit.
Regarding the foreign exchange market, the entity considers that the dollar "should underperform" most currencies, especially against those associated with commodities, thus prolonging its long-term depreciation path.