GVC Gaesco has decided to remove Acerinox from its Spanish portfolio to incorporate Ebro Foods in its place, while replacing the brewer AB InBev with the Portuguese distributor Jeronimo Martins in its European selection.
In the review corresponding to the month of May, the firm has opted to make only specific changes, prioritizing the rotation of "those stocks that have exhausted their potential" in a scenario still conditioned by the conflict in the Middle East, although with a limited impact on the stock markets.
Thus, in the list of Spanish stocks, Acerinox is out after having experienced a strong rise in the fifth month of the year, while Ebro Foods enters, a company in which, after quarterly results somewhat below expectations, "attractive potential has been recovered".
"We believe the stock is trading at attractive multiples and therefore we continue to see it as an option that offers an attractive combination of potential return and reduced risk," states the management company to justify the inclusion of Ebro Foods.
In the case of the European portfolio, AB InBev is out "due to the good revaluation in the last month" and its place is taken by Jeronimo Martins, a Portuguese food distribution group.
Regarding this new stock, GVC Gaesco details that its investment thesis is based on "structural growth in key markets (especially Poland and Colombia), operational resilience in Portugal, and the group's ability to generate profitable growth despite a challenging macro environment".
At the same time, the entity maintains the pharmaceutical company Recordati in its portfolio despite the takeover bid launched on the company: "We do not rule out that the offered price may have to improve," points out the firm.
Projection of the Ibex 35 towards 20,000 points
GVC Gaesco anticipates that the Ibex 35 could climb to 20,000 points, which would imply an upside margin of around 10% compared to current levels, situated around 18,300 points. "This means that even though the index is moving around historical highs, we see a potential of around 10%," indicates the management company.
In parallel, the firm calculates a potential advance of between 12% and 15% for European indices, depending on the benchmark indicator, and between 15% and 16% for the US market.
According to the entity, these expectations are based on the fact that, despite the increase in geopolitical tensions, the major global stock markets "have not suffered much" and the Wall Street volatility index has remained below the peaks recorded during Trump's tariffs or the invasion of Ukraine.
"We think that the end of the conflict can open the door to a new push for the indices, but investors will quickly turn their eyes to the fundamentals. If oil prices fall, central banks may reconsider interest rate cuts," concludes GVC Gaesco.