The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintains in its latest outlook report that global crude oil consumption will continue to increase steadily in the coming decades, with an advance of close to 23% by 2050, and rules out a peak in demand within that timeframe.
"In this context, we foresee that oil demand will maintain the largest share of the energy mix and will reach 124 million barrels per day in 2050, with no peak in demand in sight," highlighted the organization's Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, in the annual report on oil outlooks for the years 2026-2050.
According to the cartel's forecasts, global consumption will stand at around 113.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2030 and will reach 124.1 mb/d in 2050, up from the 105.1 mb/d calculated for 2025. Over the entire period analyzed, the projection points to an increase of 19 mb/d.
OPEC attributes this demand growth to factors such as "economic growth, population increase, growing urbanization, new energy-intensive industries, the rapid growth of data centers, and the need to provide energy to the billions of people who still lack it."
At the same time, the document recalls that in recent years numerous governments have revised their energy policy frameworks, in a context where citizens demand greater security of supply and the compatibility of the current model with climate objectives is questioned, in a scenario marked by concern over global warming.
"There is a growing awareness of the need to balance energy security, emissions reduction, and sustainable development," admits the OPEC report.
On this basis, the organization rules out the emergence of a peak in crude oil consumption in the coming years and emphasizes that "all energies" will be essential to meet global demand, insisting that "the world cannot choose some energies and discard others."
HIGHER DEMAND FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
OPEC's analysis indicates that countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will concentrate the largest part of the consumption increase: their oil demand will rise by 7.4 mb/d between 2025 and 2030 and by 26.9 mb/d between 2025 and 2050. In parallel, for OECD economies, a rebound of 0.7 mb/d is forecast until 2030 and of almost 8 mb/d in the 2025-2050 period.
"The main sources of long-term oil demand growth are India, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America," the oil organization has specified.
By branches of activity, the document identifies road transport, aviation, and the petrochemical industry as key drivers of future crude consumption, in addition to industry in general and uses in the residential, commercial, and agricultural sectors. The only area in which OPEC anticipates a slight decrease in long-term demand is electricity generation.