The reinforcement of renewable energies in the Spanish electricity system has caused the wholesale price of electricity to be increasingly less conditioned by the international price of natural gas. According to the Bank of Spain, this lower dependence has made it possible to halve the impact of gas on electricity compared to the average of neighboring European countries.
Until 2021, an increase of 10 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) of gas meant, generally in the major economies of the euro area, an increase of around 20 euros per MWh in the electricity market, in line with the technical requirement of about 2 MWh of gas to produce 1 MWh of electricity.
According to the annual report of the institution chaired by José Luis Escrivá, since 2022 the sensitivity of the price of electricity to gas has been moderating in the Spanish case, first due to the application of the so-called "Iberian exception" and, more recently, due to the greater weight of wind and photovoltaic generation, which displaces fossil technologies from marginal price setting.
The supervisor calculates that, with the current structure of the 'mix', an increase of 10 euros in the MWh of gas would translate today in Spain into an increase of between 5 and 10 euros per MWh in the electricity market, compared to the 2 to 1 ratio that is still observed approximately in Germany and Italy.
This lower link between gas and electricity has been transferred to the final prices for industry, where the Bank of Spain points out that the accumulated increase in the price of electricity between 2021 and the first half of 2025 has been around 40 euros per MWh, approximately half of the increase close to 80 euros per MWh recorded, on average, in the rest of the euro area economies.
The body emphasizes that this differential behavior has also been reflected in the reaction of Spanish electricity futures following the recent rise in gas linked to the war in Iran, with more moderate upward revisions than in Italy and Germany, whose generation matrices continue to depend to a greater extent on fossil fuels.