The metal sector faces the third quarter of 2026 in a scenario of "lower activity, export weakness, and still high costs," although it maintains the same pace of job creation as in the previous three months, according to a statement this Monday from the Spanish Confederation of Metal Business Organizations (Confemetal).
According to the "17th Economic Sentiment Report of the Metal Sector," prospects for the third quarter show a slight improvement compared to the second quarter regarding turnover and exports—although both variables remain below the break-even level—, maintain unchanged employment generation, and worsen in the areas of energy, transport, and raw materials, even though these remain "clearly" above the stability threshold.
In detail, the indicator—which measures on a scale of 0 (significant decrease) to 100 (significant increase) the perception of organizations and companies in the sector—places turnover at 39.3 points (a historical series low) in the second quarter of the year and forecasts a rebound in the third quarter to 41.1. In parallel, exports are expected to rise from 35.7 in the second quarter to 37.5 in the third, all of which are still below the stability threshold (50).
Job creation remains at exactly the same levels, with 51.8 points in both periods analyzed, while declines are observed in the indicators for energy (from 71.4 to 66.1), transport (from 78.6 to 67.9), and raw materials (from 83.9 to 73.2), according to the results of the survey conducted between June 15 and 30 of the current year.
Confemetal interprets these data as a foreseen "moderation" in cost increases, although it emphasizes that energy, transport, and raw materials "remain at high levels"; it notes that turnover remains in "contractive territory," indicates that the export trend "reflects the weakness of the external environment," and points to "a still insufficient recovery," while considering employment as "the most resilient indicator."
In the area of costs, despite the foreseen "moderation" in the increase of energy, transport, and raw materials, the employers' association warns that this does not mean the pressure on companies will disappear, but only a slowdown in the pace of price increases.
"Costs continue to condition margins, investment, and the sector's competitive capacity, especially at a time of lower turnover and weak export performance," states the business organization.
Finally, the report includes "the companies' concern about the weight of bureaucratic and administrative burdens, considered a limitation for growth and competitiveness," and specifies that, "in certain cases, the increase in turnover is more due to the rising cost of raw materials than to a real improvement in activity volumes."