The so-called grandchildren's law opens a new political and electoral debate in Spain. According to the latest survey by SocioMétrica for El Español, 62.8% of Spaniards believe that its application can unfairly alter electoral results by incorporating people into the census who are entitled to vote even if they do not reside in Spain.
The poll also reflects that 67% of those surveyed would be in favor of limiting the right to vote for those who live permanently abroad. The most striking figure is that this position is not limited to right-wing voters: 62.4% of socialist voters would also support it.
The survey comes amid controversy over the processing of nationality applications linked to the Democratic Memory Law and the impact that the external vote may have in future general elections.
63% believe the grandchildren's law could alter elections
According to SocioMétrica, 62.8% of Spaniards believe that the application of the grandchildren's law can unfairly alter electoral results by incorporating new Spanish citizens residing outside the country into the census.
The debate focuses on the electoral effect of naturalizations and the right to vote of people who do not live in Spain permanently.
The poll also shows that 63.5% of those surveyed believe that the Government is seeking to create a new niche of grateful voters for the PSOE abroad.
Among socialist voters, 32.3% also share the suspicion that the measure could alter the electoral result.
Only 35% see the measure as a legitimate right of descendants of Spaniards
The survey shows a clear division on the meaning of the law.
34.8% of Spaniards share the Government's position and consider that the norm satisfies a legitimate right of descendants of Spaniards.
This view is indeed a majority among PSOE voters, with 65.4%, and among those of Sumar and Podemos, with 89.4%.
63.5% of foreigners residing in Spain also share it, according to the survey.
Two out of three would limit the external vote
The data with the most political force is in the question about the right to vote.
67% of Spaniards are in favor of depriving those who reside permanently abroad of the right to vote.
The position is also a majority among PSOE voters: 62.4% would support this limitation. Among foreigners residing in Spain, support reaches 64%.
Only 23.2% of Spaniards argue that the right to vote should always be linked to nationality, even when it comes to people who do not reside in Spain or have never lived in the country.
The vote from abroad becomes an electoral debate
The SocioMétrica survey raises a fundamental question: who should be able to decide in general elections.
The debate does not only affect nationality, but also effective residence. The political question is whether those who do not live in Spain, do not pay taxes in the country, and are not directly subject to the Government's decisions should participate in the election of institutions.
The controversy also arises in a context of maximum electoral sensitivity, with polls indicating a possible majority for PP and Vox and with the calendar of future general elections once again at the center of political debate.
The grandchildren law and the foreign census
The provision known as the grandchildren law is part of the Democratic Memory Law and opened the door to recognizing Spanish nationality for descendants of exiles.
The political debate has intensified due to the volume of applications registered in consulates, especially in Latin America.
According to data cited in El Español's report, 2.6 million nationality applications have been registered, and the Government has already resolved more than 557,000 positively.
The Government defends the measure and the PP speaks of electoral engineering
The Government maintains that the law recognizes a legitimate right of descendants of Spaniards and rejects the opposition's criticism.
Minister Óscar López accused the PP of fueling conspiracy theories by calling the grandchildren law an electoral engineering operation.
The poll, however, shows that distrust regarding the electoral impact of the norm is widespread among respondents.
Immigration also appears as a concern
The SocioMétrica survey also includes questions on immigration policy and the regularization of immigrants.
61.2% of Spaniards believe that the regularization process will be negative for the economy because it may saturate public services and increase unemployment.
The Government defends the opposite thesis: that regularization will help bring the underground economy to light, boost consumption, and increase tax and social security contributions.
That positive view is shared by 35% of respondents. It is the majority among PSOE voters, with 61%; among Sumar and Podemos voters, with 89.6%; and among nationalist and independentist voters, with 74%.
Young people are the most critical of regularization
One of the most striking data points is age.
75.3% of young people aged 17 to 35 believe that regularization will be negative for the economy.
80.2% of PP voters and 97.3% of Vox voters also see it this way. Among socialist voters, the percentage drops to 31%, but it reveals that a relevant portion of the PSOE electorate also views the measure with concern.
76.5% call for stricter border controls
The survey also reflects broad support for tightening immigration policy.
76.5% of Spaniards believe that the Government should reinforce border controls and residency requirements to prevent new irregular flows.
67% of PSOE voters and 72.4% of foreigners residing in Spain also defend this.
Among those under 35 years old, support for tightening reaches 81.6%.
Survey results on the law of grandchildren and vote from abroad
| Question | Total Spaniards | PSOE Voters | Other highlighted data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Believes that the law of grandchildren could unfairly alter electoral results | 62.8% | 32.3% | Majority of all respondents |
| Believes that the Government seeks to create a niche of grateful new voters | 63.5% | Not available | Data attributed to SocioMétrica |
| Considers that the law satisfies a legitimate right of descendants of Spaniards | 34.8% | 65.4% | 89.4% among Sumar and Podemos voters |
| Supports limiting the vote of those who reside permanently abroad | 67.0% | 62.4% | 64.0% among foreigners residing in Spain |
| Argues that the vote must always be linked to nationality | 23.2% | Not available | Even for those who do not live in Spain |
Survey results on regularization and immigration
| Question | Total Spaniards | PSOE Voters | Young People 17-35 | Other Highlighted Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Believes that regularization will be negative for the economy | 61.2% | 31.0% | 75.3% | 80.2% PP and 97.3% Vox |
| Believes that regularization will help the economy and revenue collection | 35.0% | 61.0% | Not available | 89.6% Sumar and Podemos; 74.0% nationalists |
| Supports toughening border controls and residency requirements | 76.5% | 67.0% | 81.6% | 72.4% among foreigners residing in Spain |
| Believes there were more irregular immigrants than announced | 54.2% | 61.0% | Not available | Subjective interpretation of the actual prior volume |
| Believes there was a pull effect | 43.3% | Not available | Not available | 65.0% PP and 62.8% Vox |