Heat wave in Spain today: Aemet maintains warnings for highs of up to 42 degrees this Sunday, July 5

Spain faces this Sunday, July 5, the start of a new heatwave, with very high temperatures in a large part of the Peninsula and highs that can reach 42 degrees in the Tajo, Guadiana, Guadalquivir, and Ebro valleys. The Aemet maintains the special heat warning, with tropical and torrid nights, health risks, and an episode that may last until at least Tuesday.

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Spain enters this Sunday July 5th into a new heatwave, with very high temperatures in a large part of the country and maximums that could reach 42 degrees in the hardest-hit areas.

The State Meteorological Agency maintains a special heat warning, with values between 36 and 39 degrees in large areas of the Peninsula and punctual records above that in the large valleys of the peninsular southwest and the Ebro.

The areas most exposed this Sunday will be the Tajo, Guadiana, Guadalquivir, and Ebro valleys, in addition to western Andalusia, parts of Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, interior areas of the northeast, and areas of Galicia where the heat could also spike in isolated cases.

The day will be marked by clear or partly cloudy skies, general stability, tropical nights in a large part of the country, and torrid nights in places where the minimums do not drop below 25 degrees.

Where it will be hottest this Sunday, July 5th

The highest temperatures are expected in the peninsular southwest and in the large valleys.

The Guadalquivir valley, the Guadiana valley, and the Tajo valley will once again be among the hottest areas in the country, with maximums that could reach 40-42 degrees.

The Ebro valley and the northeastern depressions may also record extreme values, especially during the central hours of the day.

In a large part of the peninsular interior, maximums of between 36 and 39 degrees are expected, with a sensation of intense heat from mid-morning and a high risk during the afternoon.

Aemet warning for heatwave

Aemet maintains the special heatwave warning for this Sunday.

The episode arrives due to the entry of a very warm air mass, the strong insolation typical of July, and a situation of atmospheric stability that favors the rise in temperatures.

The heat will be especially pronounced in inland areas, although it will also affect areas of the Mediterranean coast, the Balearic Islands, and the Canary Islands.

The episode may last at least until Tuesday, although its final duration will depend on the atmospheric evolution in the coming days.

Maximums of up to 42 degrees

The most important data of the day is the 42 degrees.

Aemet predicts that maximums of 40 to 42 degrees could be reached in the Tajo, Guadiana, Guadalquivir, and Ebro valleys, and even exceed that threshold locally.

In the rest of the Peninsula, temperatures will also be very high, with records of 36 to 39 degrees in many capitals and inland regions.

The heat will be more intense during the central hours of the day, especially between 1:00 PM and 7:00 PM.

Tropical nights and torrid nights

The heatwave will not only be noticeable during the day.

Minimum temperatures will remain very high in large areas of the country. In many parts of the Mediterranean coast, the peninsular southwest, and the Ebro valley, temperatures will not drop below 20 degrees, resulting in tropical nights.

In the Tajo, Guadiana, and Guadalquivir valleys, torrid nights may be recorded, with minimums above 25 degrees.

This nighttime heat increases health risks because it hinders rest and prolongs thermal stress for many hours.

Temperatures rise in the north

Temperatures will rise this Sunday in the northern third of the peninsula.

The increase may be significant in the upper Ebro and Navarra, where the heat will intensify compared to previous days.

In contrast, temperatures may decrease in the east of the southern plateau and on the western Galician coast, although the atmosphere will remain hot in much of the country.

No major changes are expected in the rest of the territory, but the starting point is already very high.

Canary Islands also feel the heat

The Canary Islands will also register thermal increases this Sunday.

Temperatures will rise, especially in mid-altitude and high areas, with maximums that could exceed 34 degrees in Gran Canaria.

In the north of the larger islands, cloudy intervals are expected, while in the eastern islands and on the southern slopes, skies will be mostly clear.

The wind will be from the north and moderate.

Clear skies and possible isolated showers

The situation will be stable in most of Spain.

Clear or mostly clear skies will prevail in the Peninsula and Balearic Islands, although with the presence of high clouds.

In inland areas, convective clouds may develop during the afternoon, with the possibility of isolated showers in mountainous areas.

These precipitations are not expected to generally alleviate the heat.

Strong gusts in the Strait

Wind will be another relevant factor this Sunday.

Easterly winds will prevail on the coasts, with strong gusts in the Strait that could exceed 80 kilometers per hour.

Moderate winds will blow in the Cantabrian Sea and Alboran Sea, while light breezes will dominate in the rest of the Mediterranean and Galicia.

In the interior of the peninsula, the winds will be light and variable, although they may gain intensity during the central hours of the day.

Risk to health

The heatwave increases the risk to health, especially in the elderly, children, pregnant women, chronically ill people, outdoor workers, and people without access to cool spaces.

Basic recommendations include avoiding sun exposure during the central hours of the day, drinking water frequently, reducing intense physical activity, wearing light clothing, and staying in cool or air-conditioned places.

It is also advisable to monitor vulnerable people who live alone and never leave children, the elderly, or pets inside parked vehicles.

Until when will the heatwave last

The heat episode may last at least until Tuesday.

Aemet warns that there is uncertainty about the final duration of the phenomenon, but the most likely scenario is that temperatures will remain very high in the coming days.

The evolution will depend on the position of a DANA and how the warm air mass affecting the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands moves.

In any case, this Sunday marks the beginning of the most intense phase of the episode.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What requirements must be met for Aemet to officially declare a heat wave in Spain?

For the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) to officially declare a heat wave in Spain, three technical requirements must be met simultaneously: the episode must last at least three consecutive days, it must affect at least 10% of the reference observatories, and in those observatories the daily maximum temperatures must exceed the 95th percentile of their historical series for July-August of the period 1971-2000. This is the operational definition used by AEMET in its studies on heat waves, and the one used to officially classify these episodes in Spain. It is not based on a fixed value (for example 40 ºC), but on how extreme the temperatures are relative to the local climate. In the Canary Islands, there is a specific adjustment due to the low number of observatories.

Operational definition according to AEMET

AEMET defines a heat wave as an episode of abnormally high temperatures that lasts several days and affects a significant part of the Spanish geography, combining three elements: intensity, duration, and extent. This definition is included and developed in its technical report on heat waves in Spain, available in this AEMET study and in the agency's own informative sheet “Heat waves”. Similar explanatory content can be seen in Xataka, Info Veritas, and BBVA.

Key technical criteria

1. Minimum duration

The episode must last at least three consecutive days with exceptional maximum temperatures at the considered observatories. There is no maximum duration; for example, the Government has cited heat waves lasting more than two weeks in public appearances (statement in Jarilla), and ministerial orders include episodes of 17 days classified as heat waves in AEMET's climate summaries (Order TED/1068/2025, Order TED/1067/2025).

2. Thermal threshold: 95th percentile

Intensity is not set by a single figure (35 ºC, 40 ºC…), but by a criterion relative to the local climate: the daily maximum temperature must exceed the 95th percentile of the maximums for July and August of the 1971-2000 period at each reference observatory. This means those days are among the warmest 5% of the entire historical series, as also summarized by the analysis of the Carlos III Health Institute (ISCIII and its informative note in Gaceta Médica and Infosalus).

3. Minimum geographical extent

For the episode to be considered a heat wave at the national scale, it must affect at least 10% of the observatories included in the study. In peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands, around 137 observatories are considered; in the Canary Islands, since there are only 6, AEMET sets a specific criterion: at least two must exceed the 95th percentile threshold. This system is explained in the cited AEMET technical document and is discussed in informative pieces such as Info Veritas or in meteorology enthusiast forums (foro.tiempo.com).

Other nuances and relation to public health

From the health field, the Health and Climate Change Observatory and ISCIII remind that the “health” definition of a heat wave incorporates, besides thermal intensity, factors such as social vulnerability, age, or housing quality (“Health and heat” Guide). This is reflected in the National High Temperatures Plan, which uses Meteosalud zones and health risk alerts coordinated with AEMET (Infosalus, Gaceta Médica, Junta de Andalucía).

In practice, this explains why there are very warm episodes that are not classified as heat waves because they do not meet one of the three requirements. The newspaper Demócrata exemplifies intense heat episodes that do not reach the official heat wave range due to lack of duration or extent (first heat wave of the summer, warm episode in April). Meanwhile, the Ministry for Ecological Transition records in its climate summaries the number of “under heat wave” days according to this methodology (year 2025, August 2024).

Finally, political and social interest in these definitions has grown as heat waves become more frequent and intense. This is reflected in public debates, informative content such as the AEMET blog (“Questions and answers about heat waves”) or even social media pieces (TikTok, Facebook), as well as in health impact analyses (associated mortality) and in parliamentary and regional government activity (PROCICAT in Catalonia, Euskalmet in the Basque Country, agricultural sector, Civil Protection, regional parliamentary agenda).

How exactly does AEMET calculate those 95th percentiles of maximum temperature at each observatory? What are the differences between a “meteorological” heat wave and a “health” heat wave in the Ministry of Health’s plans? How many heat wave days were recorded in Spain in recent summers and what political and health impact have they had?

What are the legal functions and competencies of the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet)?

The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) is the National Meteorological Service of Spain and acts as the State meteorological authority and aviation meteorological authority, with functions mainly defined in the Statute approved by Royal Decree 186/2008. This Statute assigns it the provision of the public service of meteorological and climatological information and forecasting, atmospheric monitoring, support for air and maritime safety, and advising public policies, especially regarding climate change. Additionally, it manages the fee for meteorological services, maintains observation networks, and represents Spain before major international meteorological organizations. Its competencies are complemented by R&D activities, consultancy, training, and development cooperation in meteorology and climatology.

Basic legal framework and nature of Aemet

Royal Decree 186/2008 creates Aemet and approves its Statute, subrogating it in the assets, rights, and functions of the former National Meteorology Institute. The Statute defines it as a public body responsible for the execution and management of the meteorological and climatological policy under State competence, while the drafting of state legislation in this area remains with the competent ministry.

As the Statute states, Aemet holds:

  • The status of National Meteorological Service.
  • The status of State meteorological authority, including management of the fee for meteorological services provided for in Law 13/1996 and modified by Law 66/1997.
  • The status of aviation meteorological authority, in application of the Chicago Convention and Law 21/2003 on Air Safety.

Main functions and competencies (article 8 of the Statute)

Article 8 of Aemet’s Statute details a broad catalog of competencies, among which stand out:

  • Public information and warnings of adverse phenomena: preparation, supply, and dissemination of meteorological information and forecasts of general interest for citizens and issuance of warnings about phenomena that may affect the safety of people and property.
  • Air and maritime safety: provision of meteorological services supporting air and maritime navigation to ensure safety, regularity, and efficiency of air and maritime traffic.
  • Support for defense and security: provision of necessary meteorological information for the Armed Forces, national defense, and State Security Forces and Corps, with appropriate meteorological support for their missions.
  • Support for environmental and climate change policies: scientific advice to Public Administrations on issues related to variability and climate change, as well as preparation and updating of climate change scenarios.
  • Value-added services: provision of specific meteorological and climatological services to Administrations, companies, and individuals (through agreements, licenses, and contracts), including consultancy and technical assistance activities.
  • Atmospheric monitoring: maintenance of continuous and sustainable monitoring of meteorological and climatic conditions, as well as the physical and chemical structure and composition of the atmosphere over the national territory.
  • Observation networks and data archive: establishment, management, and maintenance of observation networks, infrastructures, and necessary telecommunication systems, and updating the historical record of meteorological and climatological data.
  • R&D and innovation: conducting studies and research in atmospheric sciences and developing techniques and applications that improve knowledge of weather and climate, collaborating with other national and international R&D organizations.
  • International representation: representing the State in organizations such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Eumetsat, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the Group on Earth Observations, and fulfilling international commitments for data and product exchange.
  • Training, documentation, and communication: training and dissemination activities in meteorological and climatological matters, as well as international development cooperation in these fields.
  • Supervision of own works: supervision of Agency construction projects, expressly incorporated by Royal Decree 895/2017.

Territorial organization and principles of action

The Statute foresees a institutional headquarters in Madrid and a Aemet Delegation in each autonomous community, with capacity to provide services according to efficiency criteria, not only territorial. Additionally, it includes an Atmospheric Research Center in Izaña, integrating the scientific facet of the Agency.

Aemet must act according to principles of citizen service, objectivity, efficiency, scientific-technical excellence, transparency, and participation, publishing summaries of its action plan, general activity report, and annual accounts in the BOE, with reference on its website.

Other related regulations

Some complementary provisions regulate specific aspects of Aemet’s activity: the setting of public prices for meteorological and climatological services in the Resolution of December 30, 2015; the creation of its electronic headquarters in the Resolution of March 18, 2010; or the composition of its contracting board in the Resolution of August 24, 2009. There are also general rules on delegation of competencies such as Order TED/533/2021 that may occasionally affect bodies of the ministry on which the Agency depends.

Other legal references from the BOE linked in this search (such as the Council of the EU Decision of January 1, 1995, Circular 4/1994, Royal Decree 680/1985, Royal Decree 482/1985 or the erratum correction of Royal Decree 302/1984; as well as STC 128/2016, State Civil Protection Plan against flood risk, Ratification Instrument of CEPPM Protocols and STC 31/2010) address related matters (civil protection, regional meteorology, European commitments), but the internal distribution of Aemet’s functions is essentially found in its Statute.

What laws regulate the issuance of special meteorological warnings in Spain?

In Spain, the legal basis for special meteorological warnings is divided between the Civil Protection regulations and those governing the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET). Generally, Law 17/2015, of July 9, on the National Civil Protection System creates the National Civil Protection Alert Network and sets the obligations for information and alerting authorities and the public. Specifically meteorological, Royal Decree 186/2008, which approves AEMET’s Statute, assigns the Agency the function of preparing and issuing warnings of meteorological phenomena that may affect the safety of people and property. These norms are complemented by specific guidelines such as those for floods and, where applicable, by royal decree-laws activated afterwards to manage damage from major storms.

1. Law 17/2015: general Civil Protection framework and alert system

The Law 17/2015, on the National Civil Protection System is the basic regulation organizing the set of civil protection resources and structures against risks, including adverse meteorological phenomena. Its preamble emphasizes that public policies have reduced vulnerability thanks to the “great development of alert systems, response planning, and provision of intervention means”, and that these risks may even affect national security.

The law establishes, transversally, that all civil protection plans (state, regional, and local) must include:

– Programs of preventive information and alert to the population, to train both intervening services and citizens themselves and the media.
– Awareness campaigns, educational programs, and other preventive measures.

The specific core for the state warning system is the creation of the National Civil Protection Alert Network. The law itself states that this Network is created “as a system for communicating emergency warnings to competent civil protection authorities […] so that essential public services and citizens are informed of any emergency threat”. It adds that:

– The management of the Network corresponds to the Ministry of the Interior, through the National Center for Monitoring and Coordination of Civil Protection Emergencies.
– All public bodies that can contribute to information and alerting must be integrated into it, including meteorological services.

In another provision, the law specifies that the National Center must manage the National Alert Network, as well as the National Civil Protection Information Network, and act as an operational coordination center in emergencies of national interest, thus reinforcing the link between technical warnings (meteorological, seismic, etc.) and civil protection response.

2. Royal Decree 186/2008: AEMET Statute and warning function

The second normative pillar is Royal Decree 186/2008, of February 8, which approves the Statute of the State Meteorological Agency. This royal decree creates AEMET as Spain’s National Meteorological Service and expressly assigns it the management of the State public meteorological service, including support for civil protection, defense, and State security.

Within the catalog of competencies and functions, the Statute establishes that AEMET is responsible for:

“The preparation, supply, and dissemination of meteorological information and forecasts of general interest for citizens nationwide, and the issuance of warnings and forecasts of meteorological phenomena that may affect the safety of people and material goods.”
– The maintenance of continuous monitoring of meteorological and climatic conditions.
– The maintenance of observation networks and technical systems necessary for that monitoring and to feed alert systems.

The royal decree also specifies that AEMET holds the status of State meteorological authority and succeeds the former National Meteorology Institute in all its competencies and functions, including providing information to Civil Protection for decision-making and emergency plan activation.

3. Specific guidelines and other related regulations

Alongside this general framework, there are basic civil protection guidelines for specific risks that incorporate obligations of information and alert based on meteorological forecasting. In the case of floods, the reference is the Resolution of January 31, 1995, which publishes the Basic Civil Protection Planning Guideline against Flood Risk. This guideline requires plans to include programs of preventive information and alert accessible to the entire population, especially people with disabilities and vulnerable groups.

Complementarily, regulations such as Law 26/1974, creating the Special Corps of Meteorology Observers or Royal Decree 2076/1995 on functions and structure of the Directorate General of the then National Meteorology Institute shaped the professional and organizational framework later assumed by AEMET through the 2008 Statute.

Finally, royal decree-laws such as Royal Decree-law 10/2021, of May 18, on urgent measures for damages caused by storm “Filomena”, do not regulate the warning system itself but illustrate how, once meteorological warnings and civil protection response are activated, the Government can approve extraordinary regulations to repair damage caused by these extreme phenomena.

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