The key data is not only the range, but the floor: even in the lowest scenario, the PP would reach the 55 deputies needed to govern alone. This is a relevant change compared to previous stages of the pre-campaign, where a majority appeared possible but not assured.
The PP resists all the noise and consolidates its advantage
The poll gives the PP 43.7% of the votes, slightly improving its 2022 results and reinforcing the idea that Moreno has managed to shield his electoral base. Neither the party's agreements at the national level nor government weariness seem to be having a real impact on its voting expectation.
The key is in loyalty: the PP would retain more than 87% of its 2022 voters and, furthermore, absorbs part of the Vox electorate. This transfer explains why the party not only holds on, but moves with ease in absolute majority figures.
Vox cools down and loses momentum in the middle of the campaign
Faced with the PP's advance, Vox enters a phase of stagnation. The poll gives it between 14 and 16 seats and 14.3% of the votes, a very limited increase compared to 2022 and clearly below its expectations just weeks ago.
The most relevant data is the trend: it loses support compared to previous polls and cedes voters to the PP. The party maintains its position as the third force, but loses leverage and moves away from the scenario in which it could be decisive.
The PSOE fails to activate the vote despite the campaign deployment
María Jesús Montero's PSOE still can't find solid ground. Although it improves slightly in vote percentage (23.5%), its translation into seats remains between 27 and 29, below Juan Espadas' 2022 result.
The survey confirms a structural problem: the mobilization is not arriving. Despite the candidate's visibility and the Government's backing, the socialist electorate is not responding, and part of its votes are dispersed towards the alternative left or even towards abstention.
The alternative left grows, but does not change the balance
Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía improve their expectations and could add between 9 and 11 seats. It is a relevant advance in internal terms for the bloc, but insufficient to alter the overall result.
Fragmentation remains the main obstacle: although they are growing, they are doing so divided and without the capacity to compete with the sum of PP and Vox.
Sigma Dos for El Mundo, published on 04/26/2026
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 55-57 | 43.7 |
| PSOE | 27-29 | 23.5 |
| VOX | 14-16 | 14.3 |
| Por Andalucía | 6-7 | 8.7 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 3-4 | 6.4 |