The president of GAD3, Narciso Michavila, believes that the latest poll by CIS on the Andalusian elections points to a clear political conclusion: the PSOE assumes that it has very difficult to recover the Junta de Andalucía. In an interview granted to ABC, the sociologist maintains that the turn of the polling organization reflects that Moncloa and Ferraz would have already internalized a bad result next May 17.
According to Michavila, the fact that the CIS is now bringing its projections closer to the consensus of other private surveys — which place Juanma Moreno's PP with a wide lead over the PSOE — represents a significant novelty after years of divergence between the public institute and the rest of the firms.
The warning about María Jesús Montero
The most forceful part of his analysis focuses on the socialist candidate, María Jesús Montero. Michavila assures that her continuity as a deputy in Congress can become a key political indicator during the campaign.
In statements to ABC, he maintains that if Montero does not resign her seat for Madrid before the elections, it would be because she is contemplating an immediate exit after a defeat. “If María Jesús Montero does not leave her seat in Madrid before the elections, it is clearly because she is going to resign that night,” he states, understanding that she would thus retain an institutional and economic position secured in the national opposition.
The reflection introduces a sensitive political doubt: to what extent does the socialist candidate face the Andalusian battle as a long-term project or as an operation conditioned exclusively by the electoral result.
Moreno, clear favorite
Michavila considers that the polls consolidate Juanma Moreno as the main favorite, with real options of repeating a sufficient majority to govern alone or coming very close to it. He attributes part of that strength to a moderate political style and one that is far from permanent confrontation.
That profile, he maintains, connects with an electorate tired of national political tension and excessively polarized leadership.
The PSOE, facing a critical test
For socialists, Andalusia retains an evident symbolic and strategic value. It was for decades one of their great electoral strongholds and remains the most populous community in Spain.
Therefore, a new setback under Montero's leadership would have consequences that would go beyond the Andalusian Parliament: it would affect the internal balance of the PSOE and the political narrative of Pedro Sánchez at the national level.
The campaign enters its decisive phase
With the election date already approaching, the PP seeks to turn its demographic advantage into a solid victory, while the PSOE needs to mobilize urban and abstentionist votes to avoid another blow.
In that context, Michavila's phrase about Montero places an additional focus on the campaign: not only will it be voted who governs Andalusia, but also the real strength of the socialist bet in one of its historic strongholds.