The results of the Sweden elections this Sunday, September 13, leave a night marked by the narrow distance between the two blocks and the differences between the closing polls and the subsequent projection. The social democrats of Magdalena Andersson lead both estimates and the partial count, but the dispute for the parliamentary majority is much more open than what the polls published at the end of the voting suggested.
The projection that SVT published at 21:46 and updated at 21:47 places social democrats, Left, Greens, and Center at 175 deputies, compared to 174 for Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals. One single seat separates the blocks in that estimate of the Parliament of 349 members.
The progress of the counting also reflects a very tight competition. In the cut at 22:13 shown by SVT, with 2,588 of the 6,626 districts counted, the four opposition parties sum approximately 49.5% and the four right-wing forces, 49.1%. These sums are calculated with the published and rounded percentages of each formation.
The SVT projection narrows the advantage given by the polls
The Valu poll from SVT had placed the four opposing forces at 51.3% of the votes, compared to 46.8% of the right-wing parties. The social democrats obtained 28.4%, followed by the Moderates, with 18.1%, and Sweden Democrats, with 17.2%.
The advance of Novus for TV4 disseminated by Europe Elects also granted 51.3% to the sum of social democrats, Left, Center, and Greens. However, it kept Sweden Democrats in second position, with 18.5%, ahead of the 17.5% of the Moderates.
The subsequent projection from SVT reduces that scenario to a minimal parliamentary difference: 175 deputies against 174. It is elaborated with a statistical model that incorporates already counted votes and district patterns to estimate the national result. It does not constitute a definitive allocation of seats.
Polls and counting in Sweden, party by party
The comparison allows observing how the landscape changes between the closing polls and the votes incorporated into the counting. The first two columns are national estimates; the last one only collects the result of the districts counted at 22:13.
Polls and counting in Sweden, party by party
| Party | SVT/Valu Poll | TV4/Novus Poll | Count at 22:13 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Social Democrats (S) | 28.4% | 28.4% | 27.5% |
| Moderates (M) | 18.1% | 17.5% | 19.6% |
| Sweden Democrats (SD) | 17.2% | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| Left (V) | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% |
| Center (C) | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% |
| Greens (MP) | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% |
| Liberals (L) | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% |
Sources: Valu poll from SVT and Novus poll for TV4. Provisional count shown by SVT at 22:13 on September 13, 2026, Spanish peninsular time, with 2,588 out of 6,626 districts counted (39.1% of the districts, not of the votes). The polls are national estimates; the count only includes the counted districts. The table includes the eight main parties.
The social democrats lead and the Moderates surpass the far right in the partial
The social democrats maintain the first position in the cut at 22:13, with 27.5%. The Moderates appear second with 19.6%, while Sweden Democrats occupy third place with 17.7%.
The position of Jimmie Åkesson's party coincides with the order anticipated by Valu, although Novus placed it ahead of the Moderates. Below the three main parties, the Left reaches 8.4%, Center obtains 7.2% and the Greens register 6.4%.
The Christian Democrats gather 6.3% and the Liberals, 5.5%. The distribution describes that moment of the counting and may vary as the pending districts are incorporated.
The difference between blocks matters more than the first position
The leadership of the social democrats by parties does not resolve by itself who will be able to govern. The parliamentary sum of the forces that can support Andersson or sustain Ulf Kristersson will be decisive for the formation of the Executive.
In the cut at 22:13, the sum of social democrats, Left, Center and Greens stands around 49.5%. Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals gather approximately 49.1%. The distance is about four tenths with the rounded percentages shown by SVT.
These partial vote figures should not be directly converted into seats. The distribution of 175–174 corresponds to the projection published earlier by the channel, not to a parliamentary translation of the cut at 22:13.
Why the poll, the projection, and the count offer different figures
The exit polls estimate electoral behavior through interviews with voters. The count adds ballots from districts that have already finished counting them, whose order of incorporation can influence the provisional result.
The projection attempts to anticipate the national result based on the available votes and a statistical model. Therefore, it can offer a distribution different from that of the partial count without both data being incompatible.
Where to check the results of the elections in Sweden
The progress of the count can be followed on the results portal of the Swedish Electoral Authority.