The presidential elections in Brazil have begun their counting with an advantage for Flávio Bolsonaro over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The candidate of the Liberal Party reached 50.70% of the counted votes, compared to 40.98% of the president, in the cut released by Electodatos at 22:49 this Sunday, October 4, Spanish peninsular time, with 7.59% counted.
The initial difference was 9.72 points. Bolsonaro accumulated 4,472,971 votes and Lula, 3,614,972: a distance of 857,999 ballots at that moment of the count.
The data that concentrates attention is the percentage of the conservative candidate: exceeding half of the valid votes at the end of the counting would allow resolving the election in the first round. However, being above that threshold when only a small part of the result has been counted does not guarantee maintaining it.
Why Bolsonaro's initial advantage may change
The first results are not a representative sample of all Brazil. They reflect the electoral sections whose data have arrived and have been incorporated into the system, with a territorial weight that may vary as the night progresses.
The procedure begins with the counting of each electronic ballot box. Its results are then transmitted to be incorporated into the totalization of the Electoral Justice. This progressive incorporation explains why national percentages may experience movements during the counting.
To interpret the evolution, it is important, therefore, how much remains to be counted and from which territories the new results come. An early advantage can expand or reduce without any of those movements allowing, by itself, to declare the Presidency decided.
Neither does the color map equate to a distribution of seats or presidential delegates. The election is decided by the total of valid votes: winning in more states does not replace the need to gather the national majority.
What the latest polls said about Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
Brazil went to the polls with a tight race in the polls. The latest study by Datafolha, published by Folha de S.Paulo on the eve of the election, placed Lula at 45% of the valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42%, with a margin of error of two points.
The previous survey from the same institute had placed the president at 45% and his rival at 40%. The last poll thus reflected a narrowing of the distance. In a potential second round, Datafolha also outlined a very close scenario: 47% for Lula and 46% for Bolsonaro.
The initial results of the counting do not yet allow for an assessment of the accuracy of those estimates. The polls aim to represent the national electorate; an early count only contains the votes incorporated up to that moment.
When there would be a second round in Brazil
To win the presidency in the first round, it is necessary to exceed 50% of the valid votes. Blank and null votes are not included in that calculation base.
If no candidate reaches that majority, the two most voted will face each other in a second round on Sunday, October 25. The decisive question will be whether either manages to maintain sufficient support when the count allows for establishing the result, not whether they temporarily cross 50% during their initial phases.
Where to check the updated results of Brazil
The [official results portal of the Tribunal Superior Electoral allows checking the evolution of the presidential counting and its territorial breakdown.
The figures collected in this information correspond to the cut of 7.59% disseminated at 22:49 on Sunday, Spanish peninsular time. To know the subsequent advances during the night, the official panel must be consulted, always checking the percentage counted alongside the votes of each candidate.