The PP-A would win elections to the Parliament of Andalusia again with 41.5% of the votes and an estimate of between 52 and 53 seats, according to the Andalusian Barometer of September 2026 from the Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces (Centra), published this Monday, October 19. The projection keeps the popular party as the first force, although it does not guarantee an absolute majority, set at 55 deputies.
The PSOE-A would obtain 18.9% of the votes and between 23 and 26 parliamentarians, below the 28 it achieved in the autonomous elections of last May 17. The estimate represents a drop of 3.9 percentage points compared to those elections.
Vox and Adelante Andalucía would improve their electoral results, with 16.1% and 12.5% of the votes, respectively. Por Andalucía, for its part, would reach 6.5% and would move between four and five seats, according to the study from the agency dependent on the Junta de Andalucía.
Vote and seat estimation in Andalusia
The PP-A would obtain a result practically identical to that of May, when it achieved 41.6% of the votes and 53 deputies. The September range attributes it between 52 and 53 seats, while the PSOE-A would lose weight both in percentage of votes and in parliamentary representation.
| Party | Vote in May 2026 | September Estimate | Variation | Estimated Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP-A | 41.6% | 41.5% | -0.1 points | 52-53 |
| PSOE-A | 22.8% | 18.9% | -3.9 points | 23-26 |
| Vox | 13.8% | 16.1% | +2.3 points | 16-20 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 9.6% | 12.5% | +2.9 points | 9-10 |
| Por Andalucía | 6.3% | 6.5% | +0.2 points | 4-5 |
The estimate reserves Vox between 16 and 20 seats, compared to the 15 obtained in May. Adelante Andalucía would go from eight to between nine and ten deputies, while Por Andalucía would be between four and five, compared to the current five.
The fieldwork was conducted in September
The barometer was prepared from 3,600 telephone interviews with adults of Spanish nationality residing in Andalusia. The fieldwork was carried out between September 11 and 25, 2026, with interviews to mobile and landline phones.
The Centra indicates in the methodological documentation that the electoral estimate is obtained through a model applied to direct opinion data, with weightings for recalled vote and other variables. The agency warns that applying different models could produce different estimates.