The Party of Socialists of Catalonia (PSC) would win the elections again with a range of between 36 and 42 seats, remaining the leading political force.
The data confirms the trend of the last regional elections of 2021, where the PSC was already the most voted party (33 seats), although without the capacity to govern.
Despite the growth, the socialist bloc would remain far from an absolute majority (68 deputies), depending on pacts to form a government.
ERC recovers and reinforces its key role
Esquerra Republicana experiences a relevant rise and is positioned between 27 and 30 seats, consolidating itself as the second force.
After the wear and tear of recent years in the Government, ERC recovers part of its space and re-establishes itself as a central player in any government scenario. In 2021 it achieved 33 seats, so it has not yet reached its ceiling, but it does break the downward trend.
Aliança Catalana bursts onto the scene and overtakes Junts
The big surprise of the poll is the rise of Aliança Catalana, which would reach between 20 and 22 seats, surpassing Junts per Catalunya. The party led by Sílvia Orriols consolidates itself as a new force within the pro-independence bloc, capitalizing on the hardest and most discontented vote.
This growth represents a turnaround in the sovereignist space, where Junts would be relegated to a range of between 11 and 14 deputies.
Junts sinks and loses centrality in the independence movement
Junts would suffer one of the biggest setbacks on the Catalan political board, falling behind ERC and being surpassed by Aliança Catalana.
The party, which in 2021 obtained 32 seats, would see its weight drastically reduced, losing its dominant role within independentism.
Vox and PP maintain positions on the right
Vox would move between 14 and 17 seats, consolidating its presence in Catalonia, in line with the 11 deputies achieved in 2021.
For its part, the PP would obtain between 9 and 11 seats, slightly improving its previous result (3 deputies), but still far from competing for the leadership of the bloc.
The left maintains the majority, but more fragmented
Sumar (Comuns) would be placed between 4 and 7 seats, while the CUP would obtain between 3 and 5. Together, the left-wing and pro-independence forces could maintain the parliamentary majority, although with a more fragile and fragmented balance than in previous legislatures.
Diari Ara, published on 05/02/2026
| PARTY | SEATS |
| PSC | 36-42 |
| ERC | 27-30 |
| AC | 20-22 |
| Vox | 14-17 |
| Junts | 11-14 |