The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) anticipates an acceleration of growth in Latin America next year, with Peru and Argentina leading among the region's major economies.
According to the "Economic Outlook" report released this Wednesday, Peru will be the Latin American market with the highest expansion both this year and next, with a growth of 2.9%. Argentina will follow, with its GDP increasing by 2.8% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.
In Peru's case, the OECD points out that economic activity will be driven by domestic demand, especially household consumption and investment, along with favorable terms of trade.
According to the organization, growth remains "solid" despite "supply-side disruptions," including the impact of "El Niño," domestic gas supply restrictions, and the rise in energy costs due to the war in Iran.
"Inflation is projected to temporarily rise above the Central Bank [of Peru]'s target range before returning to the target as supply-side disruptions dissipate," the document explained.
Regarding Argentina, the OECD expects growth in the next two years to be supported by the export strength of the energy, mining, and agricultural sectors. Private investment is being favored by a progressively more conducive business environment, although household consumption will continue to be constrained by high interest rates and the slow improvement in real wages.
The organization adds that the rebound in oil prices will slow down the disinflation process and warns that less intensity in the reform agenda could undermine confidence and end up affecting consumption and investment.
Colombia
Regarding Colombia, the international institution projects that GDP will increase by 2.4% in 2026, then moderate its growth by three tenths in 2027, to 2.1%.
"High inflation, restrictive monetary conditions, and uncertainty will weigh on investment and moderate household consumption, while fiscal deficits, which remain high, will continue to support activity," it indicated.
The rise in crude oil prices will temporarily boost export revenues, but at the same time will intensify inflationary pressures, to which service inflation and minimum wage indexation will be added.
The OECD warns that the risks to the macroeconomic scenario are downward, due to the persistence of inflation, possible delays in the consolidation of public accounts, and weaker external demand in a volatile global context.
Chile
For Chile, the OECD calculates a growth of 1.7% in 2026, which will accelerate to 2.5% in 2027, supported by private consumption and investment. However, the increase in energy costs, the tightening of financial conditions, and fiscal policy will exert pressure on activity.
The institution predicts that inflation will temporarily rebound due to the increase in fuel and transport costs, although it will moderate from 3.8% in 2026 to 3.2% in 2027. Risks are tilted downwards in the face of a possible prolongation of the energy crisis, lower external demand, and a more restrictive financial environment.
Brazil
In the case of Brazil, the largest economy in the region, the OECD estimates growth of 1.6% in 2026, which will increase to 2.1% in 2027. According to the report, exports will be the main support for GDP growth thanks to commodities and strong demand from China.
Private consumption will continue to be "resilient" due to the strength of the labor market and the improvement in disposable income, although high interest rates will continue to weigh on investment in 2026.
Inflation, for its part, will gradually decrease despite the uncertainty associated with the conflict in the Middle East, standing at 4.4% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. Further increases in energy and fertilizer prices could limit growth and reignite inflationary pressures.
Mexico
Finally, the OECD places Mexico as the Latin American major economy with the worst projected performance, with a GDP increase of 0.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.
The organization points out that macroeconomic performance will be supported by domestic demand, while interest rate cuts will gradually stimulate private investment. However, its recovery will be "gradual" due to political uncertainty, both domestic and international.
"Public consumption and public investment will continue to be limited by ongoing fiscal consolidation, although exports of computer equipment will remain strong, the rest of exports will be weighed down by tariffs, the slowdown in growth in the United States and the global uncertainty caused by the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East. Inflation will gradually fall to 3.2% in 2027," he added.