The polarization in which current Spanish politics is installed draws a scenario of unknowns for some political scientists and of evidence for others about two of the topics that, for a few days now, have occupied the front pages of the media.
On the one hand, it is about the national priority, a slogan coined by the party led by Santiago Abascal, an expression included in the PP and Vox Government agreement in Extremadura and which is causing disagreements between these two parties over its interpretation. Although, in the pact document, which Demócrata has accessed, it is stated, at least five times, that the development of this national priority will be carried out in accordance with current legality.
The other of the issues that monopolizes the news attention is the content of the videos published exclusively by The Objective, which offer a visual testimony that suggests an alleged rigged election with the ballot box that Pedro Sánchez wanted to install in that executive committee in October 2016, instead of using the show of hands voting procedure, as was appropriate.
The then Secretary General of the PSOE was internally questioned, and up to 17 members of his executive had resigned. The abstention in the investiture of Mariano Rajoy as President of the Government of Spain had divided the socialists and, at that point, Pedro Sánchez asked his followers to vote in a ballot box, in a separate room, on his continuity or not as Secretary General.
In opposition to Sánchez, the current of Susana Díaz defended abstention so as not to harm the party at the polls, understanding that another electoral appointment could end up further reducing the number of deputies.
Made public the images that account for that episode, added to the controversy of national priority —used by the left to criticize the PP-Vox pact in Extremadura and Aragón—, Demócrata has surveyed various sources, including political analysts, to try to determine whether these two elements may or may not have an effect on the results of next May 17.
"Montero will resign”
This past Saturday was the pollster Narciso Michavila, president of GAD3, who, in an interview with the newspaper ABC, maintained that, according to his polls, the PSOE is "sunk" in Andalusia and that Montero "will resign" on the night of March 17, leaving the participation of voters that Sunday as an unknown, one of the key factors given the peculiarity of the distribution of votes in the different provinces.
According to Michavila, the fact that the CIS is now bringing its projections closer to the consensus of other private polls —which place Juanma Moreno's PP with a wide advantage over the PSOE— represents a significant novelty after years of divergence between the public institute and the rest of firms and, at the same time, reveals that both Sánchez and Tezanos take Montero's failure for granted.
The most forceful part of his analysis focuses on the socialist candidate, María Jesús Montero. Michavila assures that her continuity as a deputy in Congress can become a key political indicator during the campaign.
Narciso Michavila maintains that if Montero does not resign her seat for Madrid —something she has already said she will not do— before the elections, it is because she is contemplating an immediate exit after a defeat.
The video of Sánchez's 'so-called' electoral fraud
Beyond this diagnosis, the president of GAD3 does not mention these two new conditioning factors for the campaign in his interview. Something that sources from the Junta de Andalucía have valued for this newspaper, downplaying national priority —as it is not a political instrument in which they wish to get involved— and, on the other hand, minimizing the effect of Sánchez's video, because, for Moreno Bonilla's team, it is widely known how the socialist leader has conducted himself and what the images show only confirms what was already known, they point out.
For the political scientist Ignacio Urquizu, what seems evident is that Vox is on the decline and it doesn't seem like the national priority slogan will bring them new votes. "And the PSOE is indeed rising, although I don't know if that will be seen in Andalusia".
An increase —explains Urquizu— that responds to the fall of the left, so that the PSOE collects a good part of Sumar's vote, which is very weakened.
Regarding the video of Sánchez's 'so-called' electoral fraud, this political analyst does not grant it much relevance and does not believe that, at this point, it can have an effect on the ballot boxes.
“A direct missile to Sánchez's reputation”
For Allende Martín, consultant and political analyst, CEO of CompoLider, with the slogan of national priority Vox has established the framework that “resources are allocated abroad before nationally,” thus reinforcing a reference to scarcity, grievance, and belonging, which makes it a very powerful framework, with a highly emotional meaning by alluding to nation, preference, and exclusion.
"The problem with this slogan — clarifies Martín — is transferred to the PP because it generates an internal conflict. Although it is true that the popular party has subsequently clarified, as stated in the text of the agreement, that the concept of “roots” prevails. But it is also true that the slogan has contributed to projecting a contradictory image, by maintaining different messages depending on the territory".
"For the PSOE -it determines-, this terminological conflict represents the perfect storm, in a week marked by the videos from the Federal Committee of 2016 that directly affect its image. This narrative favors him and he has already announced that he will appeal to the Constitutional Court to defend rights and freedoms".
"Thus, apparently -Vox stands out- wins in the short term, the PP appears divided and the PSOE benefits by introducing the debate on discrimination and first- and second-class citizens, with the aim of recomposing the left-wing vote (Podemos and Sumar), which showed signs of demobilization in recent polls".
"However —he adds—, in this scenario, the video of the alleged putsch bursts in. A putsch —Allende Martín maintains— that is visually evident, since one can even hear shouts during the Federal Committee of 2016, in the midst of the struggle for Sánchez's leadership."
"This video —Martín affirms— shows and confirms the reputational deterioration of Pedro Sánchez. “Why?”, he asks. “Because a lack of transparency and legality is appreciated”. As he describes, "a person is seen running out in the middle of the tumult with a ballot box from another room, while others wait standing to vote in secret. Deputies and committee members are seen crying, tension is perceived, statutory norms are violated and the democratic functioning is compromised".
“Everything indicates that it was agreed when a person at the table makes indications to another to take a ballot box out of a room. In short —he concludes—, this blows up the reputation of the President of the Government, even though he has the party under control today. And, therefore, these events can influence the pre-campaign in Andalusia. It is very likely that this video will be one more element that will cost the PSOE, because it is visual, it is real. It is a direct missile to the image and reputation of President Sánchez”.
From the political island of Andalusia to the 'all-catcher'
Demócrata has also taken the pulse of these two issues with another expert analyst: Eduardo Peinado, director of the firm Strategic Words.
For Peinado, the May 17th date constitutes the main regional electoral reference before the 2027 cycle. “The elections in Andalusia —he argues—, a self-governing community that is the great electoral granary of Spain, representing almost 18% of the national vote and which distributes 61 deputies to Congress (out of the 350 total), are going to be much more relevant than Extremadura, Aragon or Castilla y León for marking trends and testing strategies”.
“In an environment of growing polarization and permanent noise —he affirms—, Andalusia is configured as a ‘political island’, with a PP government with an absolute majority embodied in the figure of its president, also favored by an opposition that has needed to recompose itself”.
“The Andalusian PP —explains Peinado— is betting everything on the ‘Juanma’ brand, the great strength built by the leader and his team, managing to position him as the best-rated president at the moment. With the current poll results, May 17 could become almost a referendum on Juanma Moreno’s transversal moderation, what is known as a ‘catch-all’ candidate, which in the past elections facilitated that broad absolute majority thanks to a borrowed vote”.
The Niche of Voters Without a Defined Party Identity
“The parties are very clear that in Spain —explains this consultant in Political and Electoral Strategy and Communication—, and also in Andalusia, there is still a large niche of voters without a defined party identity, tired of the ‘whataboutism’ and political confrontation. That is where the current president’s strategy has been successfully directed, and it is precisely there where many electoral victories are decided”.
“Another key —he adds— is the Andalusian identity vote, not necessarily left-wing, for which, after the disappearance of the Andalusian Party, PSOE and PP have historically competed. A space that currently has also been capitalized by the PP with initiatives such as ‘Flag Day’ or the reiteration of the concept ‘Andalusian way’ to define its political model”.
“In Andalusia, therefore —Peinado underlines—, it is in the PP’s interest to focus the campaign on its president, who presents himself as ‘stability’ against the ‘mess’ of governments with Vox in communities like Extremadura or Castilla y León”.
The ‘No to war’ and macroeconomic data
“The PSOE, on the other hand —it continues—, activates different mechanisms. María Jesús Montero, with extensive political experience and a high degree of knowledge, is characterized by a more combative profile than that of her predecessor, Juan Espadas, whose highly valued and moderate demeanor made differentiation from the PP at the regional level difficult”.
“The current candidate is going to raise the intensity of the opposition. The PSOE is framing the campaign as a referendum on healthcare, the main concern of Andalusians and the central axis of their discourse”.
“Montero and her team —Peinado predicts— will give greater relevance to the national axis. Not in vain, she is a Vice President of the Government, interested in reinforcing the national focus with a socialist electorate mobilized by the position of Pedro Sánchez and his ‘No to war’, framing him as a European reference against policies like those of President Trump. Also with figures like the minister Carlos Cuerpo, one of the best-rated in the Executive, the aim is to highlight national economic data against the regional management of the PP”.
“For the PSOE, that ‘nationalization of the vote’ is fundamental. Montero’s great challenge —he concludes— is to mobilize his electorate, especially those who abstain in regional elections. We must not forget that, in the general elections of July 2023, the PSOE obtained more than half a million more votes in Andalusia than in the regional elections held a year earlier.”
“In parallel —he adds—, Vox, after experiencing a setback, will try to regain ground with its version of ‘America First’, recovered by Trump, under the concept of ‘national priority’, a message that concentrates its political proposal well”.
The freshness of Adelante Andalucía
“Also deserving of attention —he underlines— is the freshness of the campaign and the discourse of Adelante Andalucía and of José Ignacio García, a still little-known profile who could become one of the protagonists of May 17”.
Lastly, Eduardo Peinado highlights that the mobilization capacity of each party will be decisive, as well as the effectiveness in micro-segmenting messages and connecting with territorial concerns. "This will be key if the elections are decided by a narrow margin, as happened in 2022 with seats determined by barely a thousand votes in provinces like Seville, Cádiz or Córdoba, and less than 700 in Huelva".
Regarding the impact of the PSOE executive committee's video, Peinado is blunt: "It has zero effect, it's not an issue and it's already measured in the polls."