The Galician political scenario would change very little if regional elections were held now. The PP of Alfonso Rueda would maintain the absolute majority in the Parliament of Galicia with 39 deputies, according to the latest quarterly barometer prepared by the Sondaxe Institute for La Voz de Galicia. The popular party would lose one representative compared to the elections of February 2024, but would retain one seat margin over the 38 that mark the absolute majority in a Chamber composed of 75 parliamentarians.
That deputy would go to the PSdeG, which would advance from the nine representatives obtained in the last elections to ten. The BNG would maintain its 25 seats and Democracia Ourensana would keep the only representative it achieved in 2024, so the distribution would be 39 deputies for the PP, 25 for the Bloc, ten for the socialists, and one for DO.
The study was conducted based on 1,223 interviews between September 9 and 24, according to the information published by La Voz de Galicia. It is, therefore, a snapshot of voting intention and seat estimation taken halfway through the legislature, not a prediction of the outcome of the next elections.
Rueda would lose one deputy, but would retain the absolute majority
The main data from the survey is the resilience of the parliamentary majority with which Alfonso Rueda governs. In the elections of February 18, 2024, the PP obtained 711,713 votes and 40 of the 75 seats, compared to the 25 of the BNG, the nine of the PSdeG, and the deputy achieved by Democracia Ourensana.
The Sondaxe estimate now lowers the PP to 39 representatives, but that result would still allow it to govern without the need for agreements with other parties. The margin is particularly narrow: losing another two deputies compared to the current estimate would leave the popular party below the absolute majority and would completely change the parliamentary arithmetic.
The data also does not represent a significant change compared to previous barometers. The Sondaxe survey published last March already placed the PP at 39 deputies, the BNG at 25, the PSdeG at ten, and Democracia Ourensana at one. Then the popular party obtained an estimate of 45.8% of the votes, compared to 31.7% for the BNG and 12.5% for the PSdeG.
The distribution of seats that the institute now outlines, therefore, keeps the political map of recent months practically frozen.
The PSOE would be the only one to increase its representation
The PSdeG would be the only force with parliamentary representation that would improve its number of deputies compared to the 2024 elections, going from nine to ten. This advance would still leave it, however, far from the BNG, which would maintain its position as the main opposition group with 25 representatives.
The socialists obtained in the last regional elections 211,361 votes, compared to the 470,692 of the BNG. The result of 2024 left the party at its historical minimum of representation in Galician elections, while the nationalists achieved the best result in their autonomous history.
The new barometer suggests a slight parliamentary recovery for the socialists, although insufficient to change the order of the three main forces. BNG and PSdeG would jointly sum 35 deputies, three less than needed to reach an absolute majority.
The BNG would keep the 25 deputies from 2024
For the Bloque Nacionalista Galego, the survey outlines stability. The formation would maintain the same 25 seats it achieved in February 2024, when it obtained 470,692 votes and 31.3% of valid votes for candidacies.
This result represented a significant leap compared to the 19 deputies obtained in 2020 and consolidated the BNG as the main opposition force. The new barometer does not reflect a new increase in representation, but neither a loss of the seats obtained in that election.
The stability also coincides with previous studies by Sondaxe. Both the barometer from December 2025 and the one published in March of this year placed the BNG at 25 deputies, while the PP remained at 39 and the PSdeG at ten.
Vox would remain outside the Galician Parliament
The distribution reflected in the survey also does not introduce new forces in O Hórreo. Vox would still have no representation, as happened in 2024, when it obtained 34,045 votes throughout Galicia. Sumar also did not obtain deputies in those elections, despite gathering just over 29,000 votes.
In the previous Sondaxe barometer, published in March, Vox reached an estimate of 4.1%, still not translating that support into seats, while Sumar was at 2.2%.
The peculiarity of the Galician electoral system is that the 75 deputies are not distributed in a single autonomous constituency, but among A Coruña, Lugo, Ourense, and Pontevedra. Therefore, small provincial variations can cause changes in seats without a significant movement in the overall percentage of votes.
A much tighter majority than that of other PP governments
The estimated 39 seats would leave the PP with a sufficient but narrow majority. The party has governed Galicia uninterruptedly since 2009, first with Alberto Núñez Feijóo and since 2022 with Alfonso Rueda, and has achieved five consecutive absolute majorities.
In 2024, Rueda managed to maintain 40 deputies, one less than Feijóo in the 2020 regional elections. The new poll would reduce that majority by another step to 39, although without altering who could form a government with the current estimate. The official data from the last elections left the PP with 40 seats, compared to 35 from the sum of BNG and PSOE and one from Democracia Ourensana.
The difference between the electoral result and the barometer is, therefore, one single deputy: the PP would lose one and the PSdeG would gain it.
Why a seat difference must be interpreted with caution
The estimate also requires caution. Sondaxe has conducted 1,223 interviews, a large sample for a regional study, but any survey has a margin of uncertainty and the transformation of votes into deputies adds a second source of variation.
This is especially important when the majority depends on one or two seats. A small change in a constituency can turn a 39-25-10-1 into another different distribution without necessarily having produced a significant shift in voting intention.
The previous Sondaxe study provides a good example. In March, it already projected exactly 39 deputies for the PP, 25 for the BNG, ten for the PSOE, and one for Democracia Ourensana, so more than a change in trend, the new barometer points, in terms of representation, to a notable stability over the last months.
The Parliament would remain divided into the same four spaces
If the ballots were to exactly reproduce this estimate, the Galician Parliament would continue to be composed of the same four forces currently present. The PP would maintain the government with 39 seats, the BNG would remain the first opposition force with 25, the PSdeG would gain one deputy to reach ten, and Democracia Ourensana would keep one.
The movement would be minimal, but politically relevant due to the narrowness of the popular margin: Rueda would retain the absolute majority with only one deputy above the threshold of 38 seats, while the sum of BNG and PSOE would reach 35.
With still an important part of the legislature missing, the September barometer does not alone anticipate what will happen in the upcoming regional elections. It does show that, as of today, the distribution of forces that emerged from the 2024 elections remains practically intact, with a single transfer of seat between PP and PSdeG in the Sondaxe estimate.