The truce will be minimal. Barcelona and Catalonia will go from the second to the third heatwave of the summer this weekend, in a chain of extreme episodes that barely leaves time for temperatures in homes, streets, and urban spaces to drop.
Protecció Civil has declared the second wave over, but warns that the next one could be even more intense. The new episode will officially begin this Sunday, July 12, and will last, at least, until Thursday, July 16, according to forecasts disseminated from the alerts of the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya.
In Barcelona, the problem will not only be the maximum temperature. The influx of Mediterranean humidity, nights with lows of up to 25-27 degrees, and the arrival of Saharan dust can increase the feeling of mugginess and make rest especially difficult.
When the third heatwave begins in Catalonia
The third heatwave will begin this Sunday, July 12, after a Saturday with a slight drop in temperature and no widespread alerts for intense heat.
Thermometers will rise again from Sunday and will do so more clearly at the beginning of next week. Meteocat had already predicted the first alerts for Ponent, the Pyrenees, and the Pre-Pyrenees, before the episode spreads and gains intensity.
The new air mass comes from North Africa and will arrive propelled towards the western Mediterranean by a low-pressure system located west of the Peninsula. In the middle layers of the atmosphere, values higher than those of the previous episode are expected, a sign that the thermal potential will be very high.
Wednesday and Thursday, the toughest days
The most adverse stretch of the third heatwave is expected between Wednesday, July 15, and Thursday, July 16.
In Barcelona, forecasts point to highs close to 34 degrees on both days, with lows that could not drop below 26 or 27 degrees. Those nighttime temperatures would make a good part of the nights torrid, especially in the most densely populated neighborhoods far from the direct influence of the sea.
The heat will be much more extreme inland. Lleida could reach 43 degrees on Wednesday, while Girona would be between 38 and 39 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. In Tarragona, highs close to 33 degrees are expected, but with high humidity and lows around 26 degrees.
The models used by meteorologists place numerous records in Catalonia between 36 and 41 degrees, with the possibility of locally exceeding 42 or 43 degrees in Ponent and the Ebro valley.
What temperatures are expected in Barcelona
Barcelona will be partially protected from the most extreme temperatures by the entry of the sea breeze and maritime air.
The current forecast places the maximum around 31 degrees on Sunday and Monday, 32 on Tuesday, and close to 34 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. However, these values alone do not reflect the real severity of the episode.
Ambient humidity will increase the thermal sensation and make the heat feel stickier. Furthermore, minimums could go from 24 degrees on Sunday to 25 degrees on Monday and Tuesday, and reach 26 or 27 degrees during the peak of the episode.
The combination of humidity, overheated buildings, and poor nighttime ventilation can make nights the main problem for Barcelona.
Saharan dust and cloudy skies
The warm air mass will be accompanied by dust from the Sahara.
Concentrations will begin to be visible from Sunday and may intensify during the week. The sky in Barcelona and other areas of Catalonia will take on whitish, ochre, or brown tones, and some weak precipitation accompanied by mud is not ruled out.
The dust may partially limit solar radiation and prevent some maximums from soaring as much as the high-altitude temperature would allow. However, it will not provide clear relief: cloudiness and particles can hinder heat loss during the night.
The result will be less dry heat and more mugginess, especially in Barcelona, the coast, and the pre-coast.
Where it will be hottest in Catalonia
The interior will once again bear the brunt.
Ponent, the central depression, the Ebro valley, the inland counties of Tarragona, and some valleys in the Pyrenees and Pre-Pyrenees may register the highest temperatures.
Lleida appears as one of the main risk points, with predicted values of 40 degrees on Monday, 41 on Tuesday, and up to 43 on Wednesday. Forecasts must be updated daily, but they show the potential intensity of the episode.
Girona will also experience a progressive escalation, from around 34 degrees on Sunday to highs close to 39 degrees on Thursday.
On the coast, highs will be lower, although humidity and tropical or torrid nights will prolong thermal stress for practically the entire day.
The third heatwave in just three weeks
Catalonia will accumulate three heatwaves since the beginning of astronomical summer.
The first coincided with the first days of summer. The second began on July 5 and left record temperatures in numerous locations. The third starts now after a break of only one or two days.
Meteocat initially considered the new increase as a continuation of the previous episode, but has finally differentiated it as a third wave due to the brief interruption and the configuration of the new warm air mass.
Almost 300 people attended due to heat
The health impact of the previous episode has already been significant.
The Emergency Medical System attended to 295 people for problems linked to high temperatures since July 5, with 59% requiring the activation of an ambulance and transfer to a health center, while the rest received attention through 061 Salut Respon.
Protecció Civil reminds that heat can aggravate chronic illnesses and cause dehydration, exhaustion, or heatstroke. Elderly people, minors, chronically ill individuals, and those who work outdoors are the most exposed groups.
Very high risk of fires
The thermal break does not eliminate the forest danger.
Protecció Civil has downgraded the INFOCAT emergency plan to alert status, but maintains the fire risk at very high or extreme levels in large areas of Catalonia. Vegetation remains very dry, and the new thermal increase could worsen conditions.
Activities that may produce sparks or fire are restricted in areas where the very high or extreme level of the Alfa Plan is activated.
When will the third heatwave end
The forecast places the provisional end of the episode from Friday, July 17 onwards.
Models point to a gradual drop in temperatures during the following weekend, although a sharp cooling is not expected. It will remain hot, but values could slowly approach those usual for mid-July.
Until then, Catalonia will face at least five days of intense heat, with Wednesday and Thursday being critical days and with particularly difficult nights in Barcelona and the coast.