On average, the PP leads the electoral race and the combined total with Vox surpasses the absolute majority in the average of polls from Demócrata updated as of November 14. The popular party receives 31.5% of the support, the socialists 26.8%, and Vox 19.1%. The gap between Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Pedro Sánchez stands at 4.7 points, while the PP and Vox together account for 50.6% of the estimated vote.
The parliamentary breakdown shown on the aggregator attributes 135 seats to the PP, 106 to the PSOE, and 67 to Vox. Thus, the two right-wing parties would add up to 202 representatives, 26 above the 176 that mark the absolute majority. It is an average of the projections published by ten institutes, not Demócrata’s own estimate of seats.
General elections: Demócrata average
| Party | Estimated vote | Seats | Institutes with vote data |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 31,5% | 135 | 15 out of 15 |
| PSOE | 26,8% | 106 | 15 out of 15 |
| Vox | 19,1% | 67 | 15 out of 15 |
| Frente Amplio | 6,4% | 10 | 15 out of 15 |
| ERC | 2,5% | 9 | 10 out of 15 |
| Podemos | 1,7% | 1 | 15 out of 15 |
| SALF | 1,7% | 0* | 12 out of 15 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 1,7% | 3 | 10 out of 15 |
| Junts | 1,4% | 5 | 10 out of 15 |
| EH Bildu | 1,4% | 7 | 10 out of 15 |
| BNG | 1,0% | 2 | 10 out of 15 |
| EAJ-PNV | 0,8% | 4 | 10 out of 15 |
| Coalición Canaria | 0,4% | 1 | 9 out of 15 |
Source: Demócrata average, 14 November 2026. The vote average brings together 15 institutes and is weighted by seniority and show. The seats column reproduces the average of the projections of 10 institutes: it is not an own estimate by Demócrata. Absolute majority is in 176 deputies. * SALF does not obtain representation in the distribution shown. UPN does not appear broken down in the aggregator screenshot. The percentages of the candidacies shown do not add up to 100%.
Vox explains the shift on the right compared to 23J
The comparison with the last general elections shows where the change is concentrated. The PP would move from 137 to 135 seats and the PSOE from 121 to 106. Vox would rise from 33 to 67: it would gain 34 representatives and more than double its result. The combined total of Popular Party and Vox would move from the 170 seats of 23J to 202 in the current average.
In terms of vote percentage, using the 2023 results rounded to one decimal, the PP falls back 1.6 points and the PSOE loses 4.9, while Vox gains 6.7. Frente Amplio appears with 6.4% and ten deputies; Podemos, with 1.7% and one. Its comparison with Sumar requires caution: in 2023 both forces ran on a shared ticket, so there is no individual Podemos result by which to measure its evolution.
What Demócrata’s average measures
The average vote brings together information from 15 institutes and is weighted by seniority and sample size, although not all parties appear broken down among the fifteen. The seats average uses ten institutes. These are two different aggregations: the deputies shown are not calculated by directly converting national percentages into seats. The provincial distribution of the vote continues to be decisive for the final result.
From 23J to the current average: how much each party changes
| Party | 23J Vote | Average Vote | Difference in points | 23J Seats | Average Seats | Seat difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 33,1% | 31,5% | −1,6 | 137 | 135 | −2 |
| PSOE | 31,7% | 26,8% | −4,9 | 121 | 106 | −15 |
| Vox | 12,4% | 19,1% | +6,7 | 33 | 67 | +34 |
| Frente Amplio / Sumar* | 12,3% | 6,4% | −5,9* | 31 | 10 | −21* |
| ERC | 1,9% | 2,5% | +0,6 | 7 | 9 | +2 |
| Podemos* | In Sumar | 1,7% | — | In Sumar | 1 | — |
| SALF | Did not run | 1,7% | — | — | 0 | — |
| Adelante Andalucía | No homogeneous comparison | 1,7% | — | — | 3 | — |
| Junts | 1,6% | 1,4% | −0,2 | 7 | 5 | −2 |
| EH Bildu | 1,4% | 1,4% | 0,0 | 6 | 7 | +1 |
| BNG | 0,6% | 1,0% | +0,4 | 1 | 2 | +1 |
| EAJ-PNV | 1,1% | 0,8% | −0,3 | 5 | 4 | −1 |
| Coalición Canaria | 0,5% | 0,4% | −0,1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Sources: Demócrata average of November 14, 2026, and results of the general elections of July 23, 2023. Vote differences calculated on the percentages rounded to one decimal; they are expressed in percentage points. * Frente Amplio is compared as a reference with Sumar in 2023, which included Podemos: these are not candidacies of identical composition. Podemos does not have a comparable individual result for 23J.
The average of the latest trackings brings the PSOE closer to the PP
Daily follow-ups incorporate a more precise photograph of the dispute for first place. The arithmetic average of the latest reports consulted from 40dB., Sigma Dos and SW Demoscopia places the PP at 30.2%, the PSOE at 28.9% and Vox at 18.4%. The calculation uses a single measurement per institute: that of 40dB. from November 14 and those from Sigma Dos and SW Demoscopia from the 13th.
The average distance between the PP and the PSOE stands at 1.3 points, compared with the 4.7 of the general aggregate of Demócrata. However, that difference does not measure a rise of 3.4 points in a few days: sets of polling firms and different periods are being compared. The overall average brings together 15 institutes and applies weightings by seniority and methodology; this trackings average gives the same weight to each of the three firms.
The PSOE rises in all three, but does not cut distances in all
The coincidence appears when comparing each tracking with its immediately preceding report. The PSOE gains four tenths at 40dB., from 29.4% to 29.8%; one at Sigma Dos, from 25.3% to 25.4%; and another at SW Demoscopia, from 31.5% to 31.6%. The average of those changes is two tenths of a socialist advance. These are small moves that, on their own, do not demonstrate a statistically significant change.
The average of the latest electoral trackings
| Institute and outlet | Delivery | PP | PSOE | Vox | PP + Vox |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40dB. · EL PAÍS / SER | 14 November | 31,1% | 29,8% | 18,5% | 49,6% |
| Sigma Dos · EL MUNDO | 13 November | 31,0% | 25,4% | 19,7% | 50,7% |
| SW Demoscopia · La Séptima | 13 November | 28,5% | 31,6% | 17,1% | 45,6% |
| Average of the three trackings | Last consulted delivery | 30,2% | 28,9% | 18,4% | 48,6% |
Preparation based on the deliveries collected by Demócrata. Simple arithmetic mean: one measurement per institute and the same weight for the three. Consultation cutoff: 14 November 2026. Calculations are done before rounding to one decimal; therefore, the rounded figures may not add up exactly to the total shown. It does not equal Demócrata’s general weighted average nor does it constitute a new survey. PP, PSOE and Vox are compared; the groupings of alternative left are not homogeneous among the three studies.
The effect on competition is different. At 40dB., the PSOE cuts eight tenths of a point of distance from the PP. In Sigma Dos, the conservatives grow a little more and extend their advantage by one tenth. In SW Demoscopia, both increase the same amount and the socialist advantage remains at 3.1 points. Therefore, the PSOE’s improvement is shared; the move closer to Feijóo is not.
The majority of the right continues to be the great difference between the studies
The PSOE improves: how much it rises and what happens with the PP
| Tracking | Period | Previous PSOE | Latest PSOE | Change | Distance between PP and PSOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40dB. | 13–14 November | 29,4% | 29,8% | +0,4 points | The PP’s lead falls from 2,1 to 1,3 points. |
| Sigma Dos | 12–13 November | 25,3% | 25,4% | +0,1 points | The PP’s lead rises from 5,5 to 5,6 points. |
| SW Demoscopia | 12–13 November | 31,5% | 31,6% | +0,1 points | The PSOE’s lead remains at 3,1 points. |
Source: reports from 40dB., Sigma Dos and SW Demoscopia collected by Demócrata. Each study is compared with its immediately previous report. The variations are expressed in percentage points. The simple average of the PSOE change is +0,2 points. The compared time intervals do not correspond exactly to the same day and the small variations alone do not in themselves establish a statistically significant trend.
The most important contrast remains in the seats. In front of the 202 deputies of PP and Vox in the overall total shown by Demócrata, 40dB. attributes 189 to them; Sigma Dos publishes individual ranges that go from 126 to 132 for the PP and from 62 to 69 for Vox; and SW Demoscopia places their sum at 173. This last one is the only one of the three reports consulted that leaves both below the absolute majority.
Averaging the vote helps to summarize these differences, but does not eliminate them. It also does not allow automatically converting the combined 48.6% of PP and Vox into a distribution of deputies. The conclusion shared by the latest reports is more limited: the PSOE slightly improves its estimate, while a considerable discrepancy remains open about the magnitude of the right-wing advantage.