AEMET warns: strong storms in the northeast and intense heat in the Canary Islands during the week

The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) activates and deactivates red warnings following an internal technical procedure based on quantitative risk thresholds, continuous monitoring, and coordination with Civil Protection. Legally, its function of issuing warnings is supported by the AEMET Statute, approved by Royal Decree 186/2008, and is integrated into the National Civil Protection System regulated by Law 17/2015 and the State General Emergency Plan of Civil Protection. Although the regulations set the framework of competence and coordination, the fine details of warning levels (yellow, orange, red) and internal procedures are regulatory and technical, not legal.

Institutional framework and competencies

The Royal Decree 186/2008, which approves the AEMET Statute, expressly grants it the competence for the issuance of warnings for meteorological phenomena that may affect the safety of people and property and the maintenance of continuous meteorological surveillance over the national territory. This makes AEMET the National Meteorological Service and the sole issuer of official severe weather warnings.

On the other hand, the Law 17/2015, of the National Civil Protection System, configures adverse meteorological phenomena as one of the risks to be addressed through Special Plans and through the State General Emergency Plan (PLEGEM). This Plan, approved by Agreement of the Council of Ministers, creates the National Alert Network (RAN), managed by the Directorate General of Civil Protection and Emergencies, which is the official channel to communicate emergency warnings to the competent authorities.

In this scheme, AEMET has technical competence to issue meteorological warnings; Civil Protection (state and regional) decides the activation of emergency plans, measures to the population, infrastructure closures, etc. Therefore, the AEMET red warning is a technical trigger that civil protection authorities use for their operational decisions.

Definition and criteria of the red warning

The red warning is part of AEMET's warning system (usually called Meteoalert) and is the highest severity level. It is activated when the forecast or observation indicates that extreme meteorological phenomena are going to occur or are occurring with a high probability and with very likely and severe impact on the population or property.

The thresholds are objective and quantified and vary according to the phenomenon (extreme precipitation in 24 hours, wind gusts, sea state, maximum or minimum temperatures, snow, storms, etc.) and according to the meteorological zone, because the associated risk is not the same in all regions. These thresholds are collected in AEMET's technical documentation, agreed upon with European meteorological service standards and the needs of Civil Protection.

Procedure to activate a red warning

1. Monitoring and diagnosis

• Continuous observation: networks of stations, radars, satellites, and numerical models generate data that are monitored 24/7 in territorial centers and at AEMET's national center.
• Risk assessment: forecasters identify potentially severe episodes (intense storms, DANAs, heat or cold waves, maritime storms, etc.) and compare model outputs with the thresholds of each zone.

2. Internal technical decision

• When it is forecasted that red-level thresholds will be exceeded with sufficient probability, the prediction teams prepare the warning proposal (phenomenon, affected area, validity period, expected intensity).
• The decision is made by the forecasting manager (at national or territorial level, depending on the episode's scope), following AEMET's internal protocols and the precautionary principle when escalating from orange to red.

3. Communication to Civil Protection and publication

• Once decided, the red warning is simultaneously disseminated through:
  • AEMET's public channels (website, warning maps, information notes, social networks, technical bulletins).
  • Operational channels to state Civil Protection (CENEM) and to regional emergency coordination centers, which integrate it into the National Alert Network and their own systems.
• In episodes of special relevance, it is accompanied by expanded information notes and direct coordination (technical meetings, videoconferences) with Civil Protection and other agencies (Development, Interior, etc.).

Maintenance, updating, and deactivation

While the red warning is in force, AEMET carries out continuous monitoring of the episode. If observations confirm the expected intensity or even a worsening, the validity period is maintained or adjusted; if the situation eases or models revise downward, it can be downgraded to orange or cancelled early.

Deactivation also follows a technical procedure: the responsible forecaster reevaluates the situation and, once it is considered that red thresholds are no longer exceeded and there is no imminent severe risk, issues a new bulletin that cancels or downgrades the warning. This update is communicated through the same channels: warning map, bulletins, and notification to emergency centers and the National Alert Network.

It is important to emphasize that the deactivation of AEMET's red warning does not automatically imply the end of civil protection measures: authorities may keep plans and measures active in the recovery phase even if the meteorological warning level has decreased.

The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) is the State's meteorological authority and Spain's public meteorological service. Its main competencies are meteorological forecasting and monitoring, issuance of warnings for adverse phenomena, and technical support to civil protection and other public services. According to recent BOE resolutions, AEMET is attached to the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO), through the State Secretariat for the Environment. Based on these foundations, it has been strengthening its predictive capacity and its role in managing climate and meteorological risks.

Ministerial attachment and institutional fit

Official resolutions on AEMET's agreements with other administrations and entities clarify its place within the central Government structure. In a resolution about an agreement with the Barcelona Institute of Culture, it is stated that the State competence in meteorological service matters is attributed to MITECO and that:

• AEMET is an agency attached to the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge.
• It is attached through the State Secretariat for the Environment, according to Royal Decree 503/2024 on the ministry's basic organic structure.

This attachment appears expressly in the BOE resolution about the agreement with the Barcelona Institute of Culture, accessible in this agreement with ICUB. Similarly, the agreement with the Autonomous Community of the Balearic Islands emphasizes that the State holds exclusive competence over the meteorological service (art. 149.1.20ª of the Constitution) and exercises it through AEMET under MITECO's umbrella, as reflected in the agreement with the Balearic Islands.

Additionally, in the news coverage by Demócrata about controversies over the DANA in Valencia, MITECO itself defends AEMET, which also confirms in political practice its dependence on this department. This can be seen, for example, in the news piece about the management of the 2024 DANA, where the ministry emphasizes that the agency acted “correctly and appropriately” within its competencies, as reported in this Demócrata information.

Core competencies of AEMET

Both official notes and the newspaper Demócrata agree in characterizing AEMET as the body responsible for meteorological monitoring. In a recent interview with its president, Miguel Ángel López, Demócrata summarizes its main functions, collected in this interview:

• Meteorological forecasting and monitoring in Spain, through observation networks, stations, radars, and numerical models.
• Preparation of daily and various-term weather forecasts, which serve as the official reference.
• Issuance of warnings for adverse meteorological phenomena (heavy rain, storms, wind, snow, high temperatures, coastal phenomena, etc.).
• Technical support to civil protection and other emergency services in risk situations.
• International coordination with other meteorological services within the framework of global scientific cooperation.

Demócrata also details this in an explanatory report about the difference between AEMET warnings and mobile alerts. According to that analysis, the agency:

• Is the body that “forecasts meteorological phenomena and issues warnings for risk”, preventively.
• Updates risk levels (yellow, orange, red) according to the expected intensity, probability, duration, and vulnerability of each area, as covered in this Demócrata article.

Other specific functions: training, cooperation, and external representation

The AEMET Statute, cited in several BOE resolutions, expands these basic functions with other more specialized competencies:

• State meteorological authority: represents Spain in international, supranational, and intergovernmental organizations in meteorology and climatology. This is reflected, for example, in a note from the Ministry of Finance about contributions to the European meteorological satellite organization, available at this Finance note.
• Training, documentation, and communication in meteorology and climatology: article 8 of the Statute assigns AEMET the organization of training and outreach activities, a function reflected in agreements with universities and educational centers, such as agreements with the University of Barcelona and Salamanca (see this agreement with the University of Barcelona and the agreement with the University of Salamanca).
• Cooperation with autonomous communities and municipalities: through agreements, AEMET provides specific forecasts, climate data, and technical support, as detailed in the aforementioned agreement with the Balearic Islands, which regulates information exchange, protection civil-oriented forecasting, and shared use of infrastructures.

Role in emergencies and public policies

In episodes of DANA, heat waves, large forest fires, or intense storms, AEMET becomes a central piece in risk management. Demócrata has highlighted on several occasions that its warnings are the reference used by Civil Protection, emergency services, and other agencies to activate emergency plans and, if applicable, mass alert systems to the population, as explained in this analysis.

From a political and regulatory point of view, this places AEMET as a key technical body within MITECO for climate change adaptation, infrastructure planning, and natural risk management. Its 2025‑2029 strategic plan, as disseminated by the ministry itself, is aimed at strengthening that anticipation capacity and public service in a context of increasingly frequent extreme phenomena.

In the current state regulations, there is no single and detailed legal definition of what a “heat wave” is nor specific thresholds that, published in the BOE, automatically determine when it is declared. What does exist is a legal framework that creates the National Plan of Preventive Actions against High Temperatures and the coordination structure to manage it, leaving the operational definition and risk levels to technical documents and the practice of AEMET and Health. Therefore, rather than a “definition in a law,” what exists is a system of monitoring and activation of levels against thermal extremes. Below I detail how it is legally articulated and what can be considered, in practice, as requirements to declare the risk situation due to extreme heat.

Basic regulatory framework

The central piece of the system is Order PRE/1518/2004, of May 28, which creates the Interministerial Commission for the effective application of the National Plan of Preventive Actions of the Effects of Excess Temperatures on Health, published in the BOE (Order PRE/1518/2004). This Order:

• Does not expressly define the concept of “heat wave,” nor sets specific degrees or temperatures.
• Limits itself to creating the Interministerial Commission, attached to the then Ministry of Health and Consumption, and assigning it functions linked to the National Plan.
• Indicates that the Plan focuses on the effects of “excess temperatures” and “thermal extremes on health”, and that its main application period is from June 1 to September 30.

Subsequently, the composition of that Commission is adjusted through:

• Order PRE/3310/2004, of October 13, which modifies section 2.2.c) of the 2004 Order (Order PRE/3310/2004).
• Order PRE/2262/2005, of July 14, which incorporates a representative of the Ministry of Public Administrations into the Commission (Order PRE/2262/2005).

These modifications only affect internal organization; they also do not provide a definition of “heat wave” nor numerical parameters.

Function of the National Plan and risk levels

The text of Order PRE/1518/2004 indicates that the Commission must:

• “Activate the intervention levels” of the Plan.
• “Propose the organizational, structural, and preventive measures necessary to avoid or reduce the impact of thermal extremes on health”.

That is, the regulation refers to a technical-health Plan (National Plan of Preventive Actions of the Effects of Excess Temperatures on Health), approved by Agreement of the Council of Ministers, where are established:

• The risk levels (usually graded according to the intensity and duration of the heat).
• The activation criteria of those levels for each province or zone, based on meteorological forecasts and health variables.

However, the detailed technical content of that Plan (temperature thresholds, minimum number of days, etc.) is not published as such in a law or ministerial order in the BOE; it appears in internal management documentation and guides prepared by Health and AEMET. In the consulted sources, there is no article that literally says: “A heat wave is understood when…”.

Relation with Civil Protection and other regulations

In the civil protection field, the National Civil Protection Strategy, approved by the National Security Council and published through Order PJC/1430/2024, of December 16 (National Civil Protection Strategy 2024), and its predecessor Order PCI/488/2019 (Civil Protection Strategy 2019), include the risk associated with extreme meteorological phenomena, among them intense heat episodes. But these strategies:

• Identify the risk of extreme temperatures as a relevant hazard.
• Frame the response in specific plans at state and regional levels.
• Do not establish a uniform legal threshold of “heat wave” for the entire territory.

Other recent texts, such as Royal Decree-law 4/2023, of May 11, which introduces occupational risk prevention measures in episodes of high temperatures (Royal Decree-law 4/2023), also refer generically to “episodes of high temperatures,” without setting a legal definition of “heat wave.”

Conclusion: what requirements really exist

From a strictly legal point of view, in the current state regulations:

• There is no article of law, royal decree, or ministerial order that establishes, in a closed manner, what temperatures, during how many days, officially configure a “heat wave” throughout the State.
• There is a framework of organization and planning (National Plan of high temperatures and Civil Protection Strategy) that:
  • Designates the Interministerial Commission as the body responsible for coordinating the Plan's application.
  • Refers to technical criteria (meteorological forecasts and health risk) to activate intervention levels.

In practice, therefore, the “declaration” of a heat wave is based on the application of these plans and technical protocols, which use statistical and health thresholds defined by AEMET and the Ministry of Health, but those thresholds are not detailed in the BOE provisions consulted. In the analyzed sources, no further information is available about a more precise legal definition.