Survey elections Catalonia: Aliança Catalana surpasses Junts and would lead independence, according to GESOP

The investiture procedure for the President of the Generalitat in Catalonia is mainly regulated by the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia (art. 67), by Law 13/2008, on the Presidency of the Generalitat and the Government (especially its article 4), and by the Rules of the Parliament of Catalonia (articles 149 and 150). These rules define who proposes the candidate, how the debate unfolds, the majorities required, the time between votes, and the consequences of a lack of investiture.

1. Starting point: candidate proposal

After the constitution of the Parliament in a new legislature, or when there is a vacancy in the presidency of the Generalitat, the President of the Parliament:

• Consults the representatives of the parties and groups with parliamentary representation.
• Within ten days following the constitution of the legislature (or the event that requires a new election), must propose to the Plenary a candidate for the presidency of the Generalitat.

This proposal is formalized in a resolution of the presidency of the Parliament, which will be read at the beginning of the investiture session.

2. Development of the investiture debate

The Rules of the Parliament (art. 149) detail the dynamics of the debate:

• The session opens with the reading, by a secretary, of the resolution of the President of the Parliament proposing the candidate.
• Next, the candidate presents their government program and requests the confidence of the Plenary. There is no time limit for this intervention.
• Then a representative of each parliamentary group intervenes, for thirty minutes each.
• The candidate may speak as many times as requested, responding individually to the groups or globally.
• If responding individually, the deputy or group representative has the right to reply for a time equal to that used by the candidate; if responding jointly, each group has a single reply, also for an equal time.
• If there is a counter-reply to the candidate's responses, each group has a single additional turn, not exceeding five minutes.
• The President of the Parliament may, if deemed appropriate, suspend the session for a time not exceeding twenty-four hours.

3. Voting and required majorities

Article 150 of the Rules and article 4 of Law 13/2008 set out the voting scheme:

• Once the debate concludes, the first investiture vote takes place.
• To be invested in this first vote, the candidate must obtain an absolute majority of the votes of the Plenary.
• If that absolute majority is not obtained, a second debate and vote may be held two days later; in this second vote, a simple majority suffices (more votes in favor than against, excluding abstentions).

Obtaining investiture simultaneously implies approval of the government program presented by the candidate.

4. Successive candidacies and maximum time calculation

If the candidate is not elected in the second vote either:

• A new candidate proposal must be processed, following the procedure again: consultations by the President of the Parliament, formal proposal to the Plenary, debate, and double voting (absolute majority and, if applicable, simple majority two days later).
• This cycle can be repeated successively with different candidates as long as the maximum legal time is not exceeded.

The time limit is set by the Statute (art. 67) and Law 13/2008:

• The count starts on the date of the first investiture vote, regardless of the candidate.
• If two months pass from that first vote without any candidate being elected, the Parliament is automatically dissolved.
• In that case, the acting President of the Generalitat must immediately call elections, which must be held between forty and sixty days after the call.

5. Role of the President of the Parliament and effects of lack of investiture

The President of the Parliament has a central and ongoing role:

• Directs the political cycle: conducts consultations, proposes candidates, and convenes investiture sessions.
• Orders and moderates the debate, may agree on brief suspensions, and proclaims the voting results.
• In case of successful investiture, communicates to the King the elected candidate for formal appointment as President of the Generalitat.

If investiture is not achieved within the two-month period, the consequence is the automatic dissolution of the Parliament and the calling of new elections, with the government continuing in a caretaker capacity in the meantime. This mechanism seeks to combine institutional stability (allowing successive attempts) with a clear exit in case of prolonged political deadlock.

Salvador Illa currently holds two distinct but connected levels of power: he is First Secretary of the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC), that is, the highest leader of the party, and at the same time President of the Generalitat of Catalonia, the main political and institutional authority of the autonomous community. Each role has a different logic: the first is party leadership and the second, head of the Catalan executive.

As President of the Generalitat

The powers of the Presidency of the Generalitat are mainly defined in the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia (articles on the president) and in the Law 13/2008, on the Presidency of the Generalitat and the Government. Based on that foundation, Illa exercises, in summary, the following functions:

• Headship of the Catalan Government: directs the action of the autonomous Government, sets its major political priorities (for example, in public services, autonomous financing, or green transition) and coordinates the activity of all ministries. He is ultimately responsible for the political line of the executive.
• Institutional representation: he is the highest representative of the Generalitat and, symbolically, of Catalonia. He represents the autonomous community before the State, other communities, and abroad, and leads the main institutional declarations on country issues (financing, amnesty, infrastructure, etc.).
• Relationship with the Parliament: he is invested by the Parliament, to which he must be accountable. He appears to present the government program and its priorities, participates in general policy debates, and undergoes control sessions. He must inform the chamber of the composition of the Government and its changes, and may request a vote of confidence to renew his parliamentary support.
• Appointment and dismissal of ministers: proposes and signs the decrees of appointment and dismissal of Government members and decides the structure of departments (how competencies are grouped in each ministry).
• Direction of general policy: promotes key bills and decree laws, sets the Government's position in negotiations with the central Government (for example, on financing or tax management) and coordinates the executive's action in areas such as health, education, housing, or ecological transition.
• Calling elections and sessions: under the terms set by the Statute and the Presidency law, he may propose the calling of elections to the Parliament and participates in setting key dates of the legislature, as well as in initiatives for certain appearances and relevant debates.
• Signing and promulgation of norms: signs Government decrees and promulgates in the name of the Generalitat the laws approved by the Parliament, ordering their publication in the Official Journal of the Generalitat of Catalonia (DOGC).

In recent practice, this translates into Illa being the central figure in budget agreements, in promoting financing reforms, in negotiations with the central Government, and in major decisions on Government structure and territorial deployment.

As First Secretary of the PSC

The position of First Secretary of the PSC is regulated in the Party Statutes as the highest political and organizational responsibility. Although it is not an institutional position, it grants decisive power over the strategy of Catalan socialism:

• Political leadership: sets the ideological and programmatic line of the PSC, defines the party's position in major debates (territorial model, pacts with other forces, social policies, etc.) and synthesizes the different internal currents.
• Executive leadership: chairs the National Executive Commission, which is the daily management body. Coordinates the work of the different secretariats (organization, communication, municipal policy, equality, etc.) and supervises the party's territorial implementation.
• Candidacies and pacts: plays a key role in selecting lead candidates and in preparing candidacies for regional, municipal, and general elections, as well as in negotiating post-electoral pacts (for example, investiture or government agreements with other progressive forces).
• Relationship with the federal PSOE: as First Secretary of the PSC, he is the main interlocutor with the PSOE leadership, participates in its federal bodies, and coordinates the position of Catalan socialism within the broader Spanish socialist family.
• Political spokesperson: embodies the “public face” of the PSC. Leads campaigns, internal and external events, and sets the party's political narrative, also when it involves supporting or qualifying decisions of the Government he himself presides over.

The combination of both responsibilities means that Illa simultaneously concentrates the direction of the Catalan Government and the leadership of the main party of the parliamentary majority, allowing him to largely align the institutional strategy of the Generalitat with the political and electoral strategy of the PSC.

The last regional elections in Catalonia were held on May 12, 2024, in which the 135 deputies of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected. The result was a clear victory for the PSC, although without an absolute majority, and configured a very fragmented Chamber, with eight political forces represented.

Date and context of the elections

According to official information from the Generalitat and subsequent analyses collected by various media — including the newspaper Demócrata and institutional press releases — the elections were held on May 12, 2024 (the so-called 12‑M). From these elections began the XIV Legislature of the Parliament, whose constitutive session took place on June 10, 2024.

These elections marked a significant change: for the first time since 1980, the set of nationalist and pro-independence forces did not reach an absolute majority in the Chamber, which altered the traditional balance between blocs and strengthened the weight of the non-independence bloc in the Parliament.

Seat distribution by party

The seat distribution resulting from the 2024 Parliament of Catalonia elections, according to data used by the Chamber itself and collected by Demócrata in its analysis of the legislature's constitution, was as follows:

• PSC (Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya): 42 seats. It was the most voted force and the one with the greatest parliamentary representation. This represents a very significant increase compared to the previous legislature and places the PSC at the center of any possible governing majority.
• Junts (Junts per Catalunya): 35 seats. It consolidated as the main party of the pro-independence space and the second force in the Chamber in number of deputies, although it was far from being able to form a governing majority on its own.
• ERC (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya): 20 seats. It recorded a significant setback compared to previous elections but maintained enough weight to be a key actor in any pact, both in a pro-independence government (already mathematically unviable alone) and in possible agreements with the PSC and other left-wing forces.
• PP (Partit Popular): 15 seats. It experienced a strong rise, multiplying its previous representation and becoming one of the main forces of the non-independence bloc, behind the PSC and ahead of other right or center-right parties in the Chamber.
• Vox: 11 seats. Maintained a relevant presence in the Parliament, consolidating its own space on the right and contributing to the fragmentation of the non-independence bloc.
• Comuns Sumar (the common space linked to Sumar): 6 seats. Represents the non-independence left to the left of the PSC. Although with a relatively small group, its deputies can be decisive to close progressive majorities together with the PSC and ERC.
• CUP (Candidatura d’Unitat Popular): 4 seats. Maintained a diminished representation compared to previous stages but remains a distinct voice within the pro-independence movement, with a clearly anti-capitalist and left-wing orientation.
• Aliança Catalana (AC): 2 seats. Was the big novelty of the call. Its entry into the Parliament, with two deputies, introduces a new actor in the pro-independence space, with a more radical profile and a discourse focused on national identity and immigration.

Basic political consequences of the result

The resulting map leaves PSC, Junts, and ERC as the three largest groups, but none reaches an absolute majority (68 seats) on its own. The pro-independence bloc (Junts, ERC, and CUP, plus the 2 seats of Aliança Catalana if included in that count) falls below the threshold of 68 deputies, breaking the majority that had characterized the Parliament for decades.

On the other hand, the non-independence bloc (PSC, PP, Vox, and Comuns Sumar) is also fragmented, so any government formula requires cross-bloc pacts or specific agreements between parties from different blocs. This arithmetic explains why, despite the PSC's victory, the governability of Catalonia after 12‑M has remained at the center of political debate.