Crédito y Caución has warned of an increase in operational and financial pressure on the aviation industry as a result of the crisis in the Middle East, as fuel accounts for around 30% of air transport's operating costs.
As explained in a statement, the rise in fuel prices is generating margin compression, increases in fares and fuel surcharges, cuts in coverage for less profitable routes, and greater optimization of load factors and fleet deployment.
"The resilience of airlines will largely depend on their financial strength, their fuel hedging strategies, and their pricing power," the insurer warned.
For the company, this situation also affects the rest of the tourism value chain. Tour operators, travel agents, hotels with high exposure to long-haul demand, and transport and service providers with high fixed costs face a "more complex" environment.
In this context, the company's analysis points to an "uneven" impact, and considers it "likely" that segments linked to short-haul travel and domestic tourism will show greater resilience, benefiting from demand reallocation.
If restrictions are prolonged, the tourism sector could face a longer period of lower connectivity, higher fares, and changes in travel patterns, according to Crédito y Caución.
Against this backdrop, the firm considers two possible scenarios depending on how long the conflict lasts. In its base scenario, it forecasts that tourist demand in Europe will grow by 8% and in Asia by 12%. In a more pessimistic scenario, these growth rates would moderate to 3% and 5%, respectively.