Juanma Moreno has clearly won the elections in Andalusia, but the numbers present a political paradox difficult to ignore: the PP wins convincingly, although not enough to govern with the tranquility of an absolute majority.
With 53 seats, the PP falls two short of the 55 that mark the absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament. Vox, for its part, obtains 15 deputies, a figure that, although far from the decisive role it has played in other territories, keeps the party of Santiago Abascal within the parliamentary equation.
On paper, Andalusia does not seem to be the most complicated scenario for the PP when compared to other regional parliaments emerging from this same electoral cycle. But precisely that proximity to an absolute majority could open a politically uncomfortable legislature.
Andalusia is not Aragon... but Vox is still there
In Aragon, the PP was left with 26 seats, far from the 34 for an absolute majority, while Vox reached 14 deputies. There, the dependence was much more evident from the first minute. In Extremadura, the PP achieved 29 seats, three short of the absolute majority set at 33, and Vox was left with 11 deputies. Again, a decisive player.
In Castilla y León, the scenario has also left the PP far from absolute parliamentary control, with 33 seats compared to an absolute majority of 42, while Vox added 14 representatives. In all these scenarios, the PP's need for Vox is more evident and more immediate.
In Andalusia, on the other hand, Moreno can try to project institutional strength and the capacity to govern without completely submitting to Vox.
Investiture is one thing; governing, another
Because being invested president is one thing, and sustaining a full term is another. With 53 deputies, the PP will need support for budgets, key laws, and sensitive votes. That is where Vox re-enters the picture.
And the question is no longer whether Abascal's party can block an investiture as easily as in other territories, but how much it will be willing to demand to facilitate governability.
On election night, Moreno Bonilla insisted on the message of stability and clear victory. Vox, for its part, made it clear that it will not give political support for free and without conditions. The big unknown is what price it will set.
Will external parliamentary support be enough? Will Vox demand to enter the Andalusian government, as it has done in other territories? Will it seek to impose a political agenda, even though the PP is much closer to an absolute majority?