Saxony-Anhalt has changed its political color. AfD wins by a huge margin the regional elections this Sunday and achieves the best result in its history in a German regional election, while the CDU suffers the worst result in its history in this Land.
The photograph has remained stable as real votes have come in. The latest Hochrechnung from Infratest dimap for ARD places AfD at 44.2%, the CDU at 18%, SPD and Die Linke at 9%, the Greens at 8.6%, BSW at 5.1%, and FDP at 2.3%.
The official count continues to progress. At 21:10, 2,223 of the 2,660 electoral districts had been counted, 83.6% of the total. The electoral administration warns that these interim results should not be confused with the complete provisional result, which will arrive when the counting is finished.
AfD doubles its result from 2021
The dimension of the far-right party's result is understood when compared to previous elections.
AfD achieved 20.8% in 2021. The current Hochrechnung places it at 44.2%. That is approximately 23.4 points more and more than double its percentage from five years ago.
The CDU is taking exactly the opposite path. It won the 2021 elections with 37.1% and now falls to 18%, a loss of 19.1 points.
AfD thus obtains more than double the vote of the CDU and opens a gap of over 26 points over the party that until now dominated regional politics.
AfD still lacks an absolute majority
The big unknown of the first hours of the night is starting to clear up.
With the latest projection, AfD would have 39 deputies in a Parliament whose absolute majority is at 42. It would need three seats to govern alone.
The evolution of BSW has been decisive. During the first projections of the night, it appeared sometimes inside and sometimes outside the Landtag. The latest Hochrechnung from ARD places it at 5.1%, just above the electoral barrier of 5%.
Its entry distributes more seats among the represented forces and moves AfD away from the 42 needed.
The current arithmetic leaves AfD with 39 deputies. A combination between AfD and BSW would mathematically add up to 43, but there is no agreement to form that Government and BSW has not announced that it will invest Ulrich Siegmund.
BSW enters for now with 5.1%
The result of BSW is one of the data that has changed the most during the night.
The first projection from ZDF placed it at 4.8%, outside the Parliament. ARD initially placed it right at 5%.
With the entry of real votes, the latest Hochrechnung from ARD raises it to 5.1%. The party thus remains within the Landtag, although with a margin of barely one-tenth over the electoral threshold.
This result has a double consequence. It reduces AfD's options of reaching an absolute majority and turns BSW into a potentially relevant actor in future governance.
Its candidate Claudia Wittig defended during the night that it would be “completely undemocratic” to exclude from any political participation a formation backed by around 44% of voters and has shown openness to collaborate with AfD on concrete initiatives. That does not equate to supporting an investiture of Siegmund.
CDU loses half of its electorate and the defeat hits Merz
The other image of the night is the Christian Democratic fall. The CDU had won all regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt since 2002 and in 2021 obtained 37.1%. This Sunday it hovers around 18%, approximately half.
The result exceeds regional politics. Chancellor Friedrich Merz personally participated in the campaign and the ARD electoral survey itself shows that a majority of voters considered the elections also an opportunity to punish the federal government.
The Greens surprise and the FDP disappears from Parliament
The night leaves another surprise that the polls had not anticipated in this magnitude. The Greens hover around 8.5%-8.7%. In 2021 they obtained 5.9% and the polls of recent weeks generally placed them between 5% and 6%. They are thus heading towards their best regional result in Saxony-Anhalt.
The SPD remains around 8.5%, practically stable compared to 2021. Die Linke falls back to approximately 9%.
The big loser alongside the CDU is the FDP. With just over 2%, it loses the 6.4 points obtained in 2021 and is out of the Landtag. Its regional candidate, Lydia Hüskens, has already announced that she will leave the party leadership.
A record turnout close to 80%
The magnitude of the result coincides with an exceptional mobilization. At 12:00 the in-person turnout was already much higher than in 2021. By 16:00 it had reached 65.3%, compared to the 41% recorded at that same hour five years earlier.
Subsequent estimates from ZDF place the final turnout around 80%, compared to 60.3% in 2021 and above the previous maximum of 71.1% recorded in 1998.
The mobilization has not stopped AfD. The vote transfer analyses point precisely to the fact that a significant part of its growth comes from former abstainers.
Who has voted for AfD
The demographic data from Infratest dimap offers another explanation for the magnitude of the result.
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Who has voted for AfD in today's elections in Germany: 61% of workers and 65% with economic problems
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AfD obtains 61% among workers and laborers and reaches 65% among those who consider their economic situation bad. Among men, it reaches 51%, compared to 40% among women.
The party reaches 53% among voters aged 35 to 44 and also among those aged 45 to 59. Among people with lower educational levels, it reaches 58%, compared to 31% among those with higher education.
Siegmund claims the Government
Ulrich Siegmund interprets the result as a mandate to govern. The AfD candidate has stated that there is a “government mandate,” although he acknowledges that for now he does not have a clear partner. He has also previously ruled out that his preferred option is to lead a minority government.
The arithmetic leaves him in a paradoxical position: he dominates the elections with an extraordinary advantage, but he could be left out of the Executive if he does not reach an absolute majority and no other party facilitates his investiture.
The BSW partially breaks AfD's isolation
The first crack has come from the BSW. Its candidate, Claudia Wittig, has stated that it would be “completely undemocratic” to exclude from any political participation a force supported by around 44% of voters and has expressed willingness to collaborate with AfD on specific issues, such as energy policy.
That does not mean that the BSW will invest Siegmund. The party leadership has reiterated that it does not want to vote for either the AfD candidate or the CDU candidate and proposes an independent minister president from the parties who seeks variable majorities in Parliament.
A night that leaves Germany facing a new question
The provisional result consolidates three facts even before the counting is finished.
AfD has achieved an unprecedented electoral result for the party in a regional election. The CDU has suffered its worst defeat in Saxony-Anhalt. And the regional political system will have to find a government formula in a Parliament where the winning party controls nearly half of the deputies but currently lacks an absolute majority and declared partners.
The last pending data of the night is precisely the one that can finalize that scenario: whether BSW definitely exceeds 5% and how many seats AfD obtains when the electoral administration completes the 2,660 districts.
The complete provisional result is expected during the night or in the early hours of Monday. The definitive result will be proclaimed later by the Landeswahlausschuss.