The CDU has just suffered one of its most severe electoral blows in recent years. The first projection from ARD/Infratest dimap for Saxony-Anhalt places the Christian Democrats at just 18.5%, compared to the 37.1% achieved in the 2021 elections.
That is 18.6 points less in five years. AfD, meanwhile, reaches 44.5% and obtains more than double the votes of the CDU. The difference between the two parties is around 26 points.
ARD already qualifies the result as a "disaster" for the CDU and points out that it would be their worst historical record in Saxony-Anhalt, in addition to being one of the largest losses suffered by the party in recent regional elections.
From winning with 37.1% to staying at 18.5%
In 2021, the CDU of Reiner Haseloff won the elections with 37.1%. AfD then stood at 20.8%.
This Sunday, the relationship has completely reversed. AfD jumps to 44.5% in the first projection and the CDU falls to 18.5%. The party that governed with a lead of more than 16 points over AfD now loses by approximately 26.
Even the latest polls did not anticipate a blow of this magnitude. In August, Infratest dimap still placed the CDU at 22% and other final polls positioned it around 23%.
The 18.5% projected this Sunday is therefore several points below even forecasts that were already very bad for the Christian Democrats.
The problem is no longer just regional for the CDU
The most uncomfortable reading for Friedrich Merz appears in the data collected during the electoral day itself. 59% of the interviewed voters believe that the federal government deserved to receive a punishment vote in these elections. Among those who blame one of the three partners of the federal executive for their discontent, 58% mainly point to the CDU.
Merz also obtains a particularly low personal approval rating in Saxony-Anhalt. Only 9% of those surveyed view the chancellor positively.
The unpopularity of Berlin had been appearing for months as a problem in the regional campaign. The minister president of Saxony-Anhalt, Sven Schulze, had acknowledged in May that dissatisfaction with the federal government was harming his party. "People here are unhappy with what they receive from Berlin," he declared then.
Merz had tried to personally curb AfD
The result is particularly delicate for Merz because the chancellor personally entered the final stretch of the campaign.
During an event alongside Schulze in Quedlinburg, he warned of the consequences of an AfD victory and stated that Saxony-Anhalt should not become a "political experimentation field." He also linked a possible AfD majority with the risk that international investors would reconsider projects in the Land.
The AfD already surpasses the CDU also on a national scale
The blow comes at a particularly complicated time for Merz.
The latest DeutschlandTrend from ARD, published in August, placed the AfD at 28% in voting intention for federal elections, its historical high in that survey. CDU and CSU appeared seven points behind, at 21%.
The contrast with the federal elections of February 2025 is considerable. Then the Union won with 28.5% and the AfD obtained 20.8%.
The defeat in Saxony-Anhalt cannot be automatically transferred to the whole country, because regional elections have their own dynamics. But it reinforces a problem that already existed before this Sunday: the AfD is growing while the CDU is losing support and the federal Executive is accumulating high levels of disapproval.
The promise that haunts Merz: "to reduce AfD by half"
The election night also recalls a phrase that has long troubled the Christian Democratic leader. Before becoming chancellor, Merz had promised to electorally reduce the AfD by half. The CDU leader himself has recently avoided taking on that expectation again and has argued that the political scenario has changed since then.
A second problem for Merz: what to do now with AfD
The result opens another pressure on the chancellor and president of the CDU. Merz has so far maintained an explicit refusal to govern with the AfD and has also rejected a formal coalition with Die Linke. Before the elections, he only left open the possibility that a minority regional Executive would seek ad hoc majorities in Parliament.
If the AfD ultimately ends up without an absolute majority, the CDU will have to decide what political formula it can articulate to prevent Ulrich Siegmund from governing.
The first projections precisely show the difficulty. The AfD hovers around 44%, while CDU, SPD, and the Greens together fall far short of a majority. The entry or exit of the BSW from Parliament may alter the calculations during the counting.
Merz thus faces two problems derived from the same electoral night: to explain how the CDU has lost almost half of its vote in five years and to decide what strategy to apply in the face of an AfD that already doubles his party in Saxony-Anhalt.