Some tenths can change the Government of Saxony-Anhalt. The Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, known by its acronym BSW, appears just around the 5% barrier necessary to enter the regional Parliament and its result can completely alter the distribution of seats after the resounding victory of AfD.
The first projection from ARD places BSW exactly at 5%. That of ZDF leaves it slightly out, with 4.8%. It is probably the most important percentage left to resolve tonight after the result of AfD.
What is BSW
BSW was born around Sahra Wagenknecht, one of the most well-known figures of the German left and for years a leader of Die Linke.
Its project aims to occupy a politically unusual space in Europe: economic and social policies traditionally associated with the left, combined with much more restrictive positions on immigration and a critical discourse regarding part of the cultural agenda of progressive parties.
In economics, it advocates for strong public intervention, better wages, pension protection, rent control, and greater protection of the German industry. In the federal elections, it even proposed a more protective minimum income for those who had contributed for years and measures to control the housing market.
This social component explains why reducing BSW to a right-wing party due to its immigration policy would be incorrect.
A left much more restrictive on immigration
Where BSW clearly breaks with a good part of the German left is on immigration.
The program of Saxony-Anhalt states that irregular migration must stop, argues that the capacity for reception and integration of society is limited, and calls for deportations when a person has no right to asylum, has abused the procedure, or has committed crimes.
BSW explicitly recognizes the right to asylum and the protection of those fleeing persecution. Its position consists of distinguishing between refugees, labor immigration, and irregular immigration and strongly tightening the latter.
Wagenknecht has publicly defended this line with a recurring formula: to stop the immigration that she considers uncontrolled and to accelerate expulsions.
Peace with Russia and no to the sending of weapons
The second major distinguishing feature of BSW is its foreign policy.
The formation rejects the deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, demands negotiations to end the war, and opposes the increase in military spending driven by Germany and other NATO members.
It also advocates for recovering energy relations with Russia and ending the economic sanctions that it considers harmful to the German industry.
In Saxony-Anhalt, the party has made this position one of the central axes of its campaign and presents itself as a "peace" force against the major German parties.
The fundamental difference with AfD
BSW and AfD agree on some issues, but they come from radically different political traditions.
BSW maintains much more interventionist and redistributive economic positions. Wagenknecht has even presented AfD's economic model as contrary to the social state that her party defends.
Coincidences appear especially in immigration, rejection of certain climate policies, criticism of the functioning of public media, and opposition to a good part of German policy towards Russia.
And here appears the element that makes BSW a particularly important piece tonight.
BSW does not want to maintain a cordon sanitaire against AfD
Sahra Wagenknecht considers the strategy of politically excluding AfD a failure.
This summer, the BSW leadership even sent a proposal to the leaders of AfD in which it defended regional governments led by independent presidents and supported by different majorities according to each initiative, including votes from AfD.
In Saxony-Anhalt, the party has named this idea the "Magdeburg path."
Its proposal consists of electing an independent minister president from the major political blocs and allowing each law to seek its own majority in Parliament. This would imply accepting votes from AfD when there is programmatic agreement. (
The two lead candidates of BSW in these elections are Thomas Schulze and Claudia Wittig.
BSW could even indirectly facilitate an AfD president
BSW has explained that it does not intend to vote as minister president for either the AfD candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, or the CDU candidate, Sven Schulze. Its first option is to promote an independent candidate. But there is a particularly delicate subsequent scenario.
If the first votes to elect the minister president fail, in the third attempt, a majority of the votes cast is enough. BSW has suggested that it could abstain at that moment if the other parties reject its proposal for an independent government.
This abstention could reduce the number of votes needed and indirectly facilitate the election of a candidate supported by AfD.
It does not equate to a BSW-AfD coalition nor does it guarantee that Siegmund will govern, but it breaks with the absolute refusal to facilitate any majority in which AfD participates.
Why the 5% of BSW can change everything
Even before negotiating a government, BSW can be decisive purely by electoral mathematics.
In Saxony-Anhalt, forces that do not reach 5% are excluded from the proportional distribution of seats.
If BSW enters Parliament, its approximately 5% of votes becomes part of the distribution. This reduces the relative weight that AfD obtains in the seats and makes it more difficult for it to transform a result close to 44% into a parliamentary absolute majority.
If BSW is left out, those votes stop participating in the proportional distribution and the effective percentage of the parties that do obtain representation increases.
From being on the brink of disappearing to having the key
The result also has enormous importance for the survival of BSW itself. The party did not manage to surpass the 5% barrier in the federal elections of 2025 and since then has gone through serious internal conflicts. In 2026, it lost a good part of its parliamentary group in Brandenburg and its national presence was greatly weakened.
Saxony-Anhalt can change that trajectory. If it finally surpasses 5%, BSW will not only maintain representation in another Parliament in eastern Germany. It can become the formation that prevents an absolute majority of AfD and, subsequently, one of the few parties willing to negotiate a system of government that does not automatically exclude its votes.