Six years later, the world faces a new global crisis. In 2020 it was the Covid-19 pandemic, then the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and now the war in Iran, triggered after the attack by the United States and Israel.
The Iranian response already reaches several countries in the Middle East and even Europe. And it is felt in the prices of oil and gas. Also in global transport as operations are suspended in one of its main routes, the Strait of Hormuz, and passenger transit.
The crisis, in case the war lengthens, is served, and the consequences can worsen for Spain if the reprisals announced by the American president, Dondald Trump, for not collaborating with the military operation are fulfilled.
Given the possibility of having to face a new crisis, President Pedro Sánchez affirmed that Spain is prepared and “has the necessary resources” thanks to the good course of its economy and “to the responsibility of its fiscal policy”.
How arrives the Spanish economy?
The Spanish economy presents an enviable growth rate in comparison with other countries in its environment. Trump himself highlighted it in his criticism of Sánchez's resistance to increasing defense spending. But a crisis would impact, downwards, its good numbers.
Spain closed last year with a new record of 22.46 million people employed and a drop in unemployment of 118,000 people. According to the Active Population Survey (EPA), at the end of 2025 the unemployment rate fell below 10% for the first time since 2008, to 9.9%.
Spanish GDP grew 2.8% last year, exceeding all forecasts, including the Government's. Despite a slowdown being taken for granted, before the war there was consensus that the Spanish economy would continue to advance above 2%. Now, all analysis desks are working to redirect their forecasts due to the new scenario.
Funcas already rushed to point out last Friday that the war would eat two tenths of the expected growth in GDP and would push inflation above 3% during the coming months, after having brought it back to 2.7%.
And, even so, the prospects for the Spanish economy represent a more favorable starting point than that of neighbors with less buoyant forecasts. Before the war, the OECD anticipated increases of 1% in the GDP of Germany and France, and limited it to 0.6% in the case of Italy. For Spain the forecast was 2.2%.
How big is that fiscal cushion?
Regarding the fiscal margin, Spain currently presents a public debt of 100.8% of GDP, according to the latest data available at the close of 2025.
As if it were a circle returning to the same starting point, this figure is practically the same as that recorded just before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The debt then stood at 101.3% of GDP, half a point more than now.
From there, the decision to face the crisis with an expansive and extraordinary 'shock' shot this indicator up to reach 124% of GDP in 2021. All that increase is a consequence of the contraction of GDP but also of an unprecedented injection of resources in such a short period of time.
According to government accounting, the economic response to the crisis caused by the pandemic mobilized 117 billion euros, and the measures to face the inflationary and energy crisis another 45 billion.
For the moment, awaiting
Now the answer is still to be determined and will depend, they emphasize at all times from the Government, on how long the war lasts and how its consequences are transferred to the day-to-day of the Spanish economy.
Many of the measures are already prepared. The Vice President of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, stated last week that the protection measures in companies, focused on preventing layoffs through alternative means such as ERTEs, are already ready to be activated when necessary.
In the previous energy crisis, the Government promoted aid to facilitate discounts for professional sectors and households on their energy bill, as well as a powerful battery of tax cuts. It is to be expected that, if the war intensifies, the Executive will again resort to these mechanisms, since the crisis will impact from the beginning through that channel.
Escape clause
However, the scope of the response is also conditioned by another key element. Spain was able to apply an expansive policy during past crises thanks to the coverage provided by the suspension of fiscal rules at the community level.
The European Commission activated the safeguard clause and the Member States were able to dedicate resources without being subject to the budgetary rigor established by the Stability and Growth Pact (PEC).
These rules were precisely subject to reform after the pandemic to introduce greater flexibility, changes that are already being applied. Last year several countries, among them Germany, availed themselves of the safeguard clause to be able to increase their military spending.
An unusual position for one of the countries defending austerity and that has historically put the most obstacles to circumvent budgetary orthodoxy. And that it remains to be seen if it accepts an expansive response again to the crisis.
In the case of Spain, Brussels allowed to remove the budgetary impact of the aid against the DANA catastrophe in Valencia, in October 2024, from the calculation of the structural deficit.
It is to be hoped that, if the crisis ends up landing, the European Commission will again allow similar formulas or the activation of the clause. To a large extent, on this will depend what type of response is given to the crisis and, therefore, what way out is sought.