General elections: the PSOE increases its lead in the vote, but loses a seat and the PP would not have an absolute majority with Vox, according to the tracking of SW Demoscopia

In Spain, the formation of government after a general election follows a parliamentary itinerary very much guided by the Constitution and the Rules of the Congress. When no bloc reaches an absolute majority (176 seats), the process does not formally change, but political negotiation becomes decisive.

1. Proclamation of results and constitution of the new Congress

After the scrutiny and official proclamation of elected members by the Electoral Boards, the first milestone is the constitutive session of the Congress and the Senate, convened by the King within the deadline set by the electoral law.

• Oath or promise of the deputies: the elected members fully acquire their status as deputies once they take office and swear or promise to uphold the Constitution.
• Election of the Congress Board: the Chamber elects the Presidency, Vice Presidencies, and Secretariats. Here the first majority “bloc” is already seen, because controlling the Board grants the ability to organize work and time.
• Constitution of parliamentary groups: in the following days, parties and coalitions register their groups. Having their own group influences the negotiation strength for a possible investiture.

Up to this point, there is no formal talk of government, but the balances that will determine which leader has more chances to be president are configured.

2. King's round of consultations with parties

With Parliament already constituted, the King opens a round of consultations with representatives designated by the parties present in the Congress, starting from those with the least to the greatest representation. This round pursues an objective:

• To check which candidate has the best chances of obtaining the confidence of the Congress.
• To listen to what combinations or agreements each party explores (coalitions, external support, abstentions).

If no bloc sums an absolute majority, the role of abstentions and “hinge” parties becomes central: the King usually proposes whoever, according to these conversations, can reach at least a simple majority in a second vote.

3. Proposal of candidate and designation of the investiture debate

After the consultations, the King formally proposes a candidate for the Presidency of the Government and communicates it to the Presidency of the Congress. From there, it is up to the Presidency to:

• Set the date of the investiture debate, in agreement with the proposed candidate.
• Order the processing: speaking turns, reply times, and setting the votes.

Although there is no rigid maximum deadline for the King to make his proposal, there is a global limit: the two-month count to avoid new elections is activated from the first investiture vote held, whether successful or not.

4. Investiture debate: first and second vote

The investiture debate takes place in the Plenary of the Congress:

• The candidate presents their government program and political action lines without time limit.
• Parliamentary groups then intervene with fixed turns, including replies and counter-replies.

At the end of the debate, the first vote takes place:

• Absolute majority is required (176 yes votes or more). In a highly fragmented Congress, this usually requires formal coalitions and external support.
• If the candidate does not obtain it, a second vote 48 hours later is held, with the same debate limited to brief interventions if agreed by the Presidency.
• In the second vote, a simple majority suffices: more affirmative than negative votes. Here abstentions are key; a bloc not reaching 176 seats does not prevent it from achieving a simple majority if other groups abstain.

If the candidate gains confidence in either vote, the King appoints them President of the Government by royal decree and the new Executive is formed (appointment of ministers and taking office).

5. Failure of investiture and new attempts

If the proposed candidate does not gain confidence in either vote, the process is not exhausted:

• The King can open new rounds of consultations and propose another different candidate.
• He could also propose the same candidate again if alliances have been reconfigured and he sees a possibility of success.

During this period, the outgoing Government continues in office, with limited powers, while parties negotiate coalition agreements, legislative pacts, or simple abstention commitments.

6. Two-month limit and calling new elections

If two months pass from the first investiture vote without any candidate having obtained the confidence of the Congress, the Cortes dissolve automatically and new general elections are called. No additional political agreement is needed: it is an automatic mechanism to avoid indefinite deadlock.

In summary, when no bloc sums an absolute majority, the parliamentary procedure is the same, but the practical key lies in the negotiations that allow a candidate to reach, at minimum, a simple majority in the second vote before the two-month deadline expires.

The President of the Government of Spain is the highest authority of the Executive Power and the key figure of the parliamentary system designed by the 1978 Constitution. His powers and functions appear mainly in articles 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, and 112 to 115 of the Constitution, as well as being developed in laws such as the Government Law.

1. Direction of general policy and the Government

The main function of the president is to direct the action of the Government and coordinate the work of the other ministers. Article 97 establishes that the Government directs domestic and foreign policy, the civil and military Administration, and the defense of the State, and exercises executive function and regulatory power. Within this collegiate body, the president is the one who:

• Sets the major political guidelines in all areas (economic, social, territorial, foreign, defense, etc.).
• Coordinates and arbitrates the actions of the different ministries, resolving conflicts of competence among them.
• Convenes, sets the agenda, and presides over the meetings of the Council of Ministers.
• Promotes the drafting of bills, royal decree-laws, and regulations that the Government submits to the Cortes Generales or approves directly.

2. Confidence relationship with the Congress of Deputies

In a parliamentary system, the President of the Government must have the confidence of the Congress. Several constitutional functions derive from this:

• Election and investiture: he is elected by the Congress at the proposal of the King (art. 99). He must present his political program and obtain confidence through a vote.
• Political responsibility: he is politically accountable before the Congress, which can demand his dismissal through a motion of censure (art. 113) or cause his replacement if the president himself raises a vote of confidence (art. 112) and loses it.
• Accountability: he attends control sessions, answers questions and interpellations, and can present general political communications for debate.

3. Appointment and dismissal of ministers

The President of the Government has the exclusive competence to propose the appointment and dismissal of ministers to the King (art. 100). In practice, this implies that:

• He decides the structure of the Government (which ministries exist and with what name, within legal margins).
• He freely appoints the people who will be ministers and can reshuffle the Government at any time.
• He politically directs and coordinates the entire Council of Ministers, which is a collegiate body but under his leadership.

4. Representation of the State and the Government

The President of the Government is, along with the King, one of the main visible faces of the State:

• Domestically, he represents the Government before the Cortes Generales, the autonomous communities, social agents, and the citizenry.
• Abroad, he directs foreign policy together with the Minister of Foreign Affairs and represents Spain at European and international summits, negotiating major guidelines of the Executive's foreign action.
• He is the highest political responsible for national defense, in coordination with the competent minister and within the decision framework of the Council of Ministers and the Congress.

5. Dissolution of the Cortes and calling elections

Another essential power is the faculty to propose to the King the dissolution of the Congress, the Senate, or the Cortes Generales as a whole and the calling of general elections (art. 115). This decision:

• Must be adopted by the president himself, after hearing the Council of Ministers, and formalized by a royal decree signed by the King and countersigned by the president.
• Cannot be exercised when a motion of censure is underway.
• Is a key political instrument to unblock parliamentary situations or redefine majorities.

6. Other relevant constitutional functions

Besides the above, the Constitution and laws assign the president other important functions:

• Endorsement of acts of the King: many acts of the King require the president's signature (for example, the appointment of ministers, dissolution of the Cortes, calling referendums), which transfers political responsibility to the Government.
• Direction in crisis situations: in political practice, he coordinates the State's response to economic, health, security, or territorial crises, promoting necessary normative and management measures.
• Relations with autonomous communities: he leads the Government's position in presidents' conferences and in political negotiation on financing, competences, or other territorial matters, within the constitutional framework.

Overall, the Constitution configures the President of the Government as the center of gravity of executive power and a key piece in the relationship between Government and Parliament: he directs general policy, structures and leads the Government, is accountable before the Congress, and has tools such as the dissolution of the Cortes and the vote of confidence to manage majorities and institutional stability.

In the previous general elections, held on July 23, 2023, the PSOE obtained 7,821,718 votes, 31.68% of valid votes, and 121 seats in the Congress, including the PSC in the socialist total. It was the second force in votes and deputies, behind the PP. These are the definitive results recorded in the electoral retrospective of Demócrata (PSOE historical results).

The 2023 result, explained

The three figures correspond to different aspects: votes indicate how many ballots the candidacy received; the percentage expresses what part of the valid votes they represented; and the seats are the deputies obtained. In July 2023, the PSOE reached its highest number of votes and highest percentage of the five calls with Pedro Sánchez as candidate, although not its maximum number of deputies (Demócrata, electoral evolution).

It is advisable to use the definitive figure of 121 deputies, not the 122 that appeared in preliminary results. It is also important to maintain the same criterion when comparing calls: the data in this answer include the PSC and associated candidacies integrated into the socialist total, and do not mix provisional with definitive results (2023 Congress results; comparison criterion).

Comparison with November 2019

The immediately previous call was on November 10, 2019. Then, the PSOE obtained 6,792,199 votes, 28.00%, and 120 seats, and was in first position. This is the most direct reference to measure how much its result changed in the following general elections (Interior, definitive results 2019).

Between November 2019 and July 2023, the PSOE gained 1,029,519 votes, increased its percentage by 3.68 percentage points, and obtained one more deputy. However, it went from first to second position: improving its own result did not mean surpassing the other candidacies (Demócrata, comparison between calls).

The last five calls, as context

If by “previous elections” you mean several calls and not only the last one, this is the PSOE's evolution with Sánchez as candidate. All figures correspond to the Congress and follow the same grouping criterion (complete historical series):

• December 20, 2015: 5,545,315 votes, 22.00%, and 90 seats; second position.
• June 26, 2016: 5,443,846 votes, 22.63%, and 85 seats; second position.
• April 28, 2019: 7,513,142 votes, 28.67%, and 123 seats; first position.
• November 10, 2019: 6,792,199 votes, 28.00%, and 120 seats; first position.
• July 23, 2023: 7,821,718 votes, 31.68%, and 121 seats; second position.

Why more votes did not mean many more seats

The clearest contrast is between April 2019 and July 2023: the PSOE obtained in 2023 308,576 more votes, but two fewer deputies. Therefore, its best vote result in this series does not coincide with its best parliamentary result, which was the 123 seats of April 2019 (Demócrata, votes and representation).

The explanation is that deputies are distributed by constituencies, not directly converting the national percentage into seats. Where support is concentrated, the results of other candidacies, and the distribution of the last deputies of each province influence. That is why it is advisable to look jointly at votes, percentage, and representation, rather than using a single figure to describe the electoral result (explanation of territorial distribution).